ACUS11 KWNS 222015
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222014
COZ000-UTZ000-222145-

Mesoscale Discussion 2400
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0314 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Areas affected...Parts of southeastern Utah and southwestern
Colorado

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 222014Z - 222145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The severe risk is expected to spread northward, with the
main concerns being severe wind gusts and large hail. A watch will
likely be needed.

DISCUSSION...Clouds have gradually cleared from south to north into
parts of southeastern UT and southwestern CO, yielding
boundary-layer destabilization. Despite relatively weak buoyancy,
strengthening large-scale forcing for ascent preceding the midlevel
low/trough over CA and strengthening deep-layer wind fields (around
60 kt of 0-6 km shear per GJX VWP) should still support organized
clusters and supercell structures developing/spreading into the area
from the south. The primary concerns will be large hail and severe
wind gusts, though a tornado cannot be entirely ruled out -- given
modest low-level shear/hodograph curvature. A watch will likely be
needed.

..Weinman/Guyer.. 10/22/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_DZ_CS-iqfrOIMttdBeJWtlPDgyRtKka_xTAUSOmzAvG1SxwcVa0EDDNcTZjBQHD2tcbQkbCNbUoAyFB1hz4Y9xOIaE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GJT...

LAT...LON 37090800 37060962 37390995 37750991 38140952 38250903
38230827 38090802 37860780 37450775 37090800

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)