Forum: Mystical Realm BBS

MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Oct 5 12:49:46 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 051249
FFGMPD
TXZ000-051800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1453
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
848 AM EDT Mon Oct 05 2026

Areas affected...Extreme Southern Tip of South Texas...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 051250Z - 051800Z

SUMMARY...Extremely narrow band of repeating/training showers with
embedded stronger thunderstorms capable of quick 2"/hr.
Possibility of additional 2-4" mainly along/just off coast.

DISCUSSION...Persistent tropical band of showers and occasional
embedded deeper convective cores remains in close proximity to the
far southern tip of Texas with little variation expected over the
early morning period. Aloft, a stronger tropical wave is
progressing through the Bay of Campeche into the Eastern Mexican
coast providing an outflow channel aloft with 30-50kts of flow,
weakly curved anticyclonically to further diffluence and broad
scale vertical ascent. The surface front continues to remain
fairly stationary and just off-shore, though there is a weak
surface to 850mb wave near 26.5N 96.5W but may not be drifting
southeasterly. Though due to curvature of the coast, confluence
remains solid enough and with deep layer moisture over 2.7",
rainfall efficiency capability will remain in enough proximity to
suggest 2"/hr rates would be possible with transient convective
cores if they develop. Gradient of instability with maximum of
1500 J/kg just a few miles off coast, even in a deeply saturated
profile suggests that vertical development may occur even with
typically weak convergence. As such the risk of excessive
rainfall capable of maintaining flooding or increasing to rapid
inundation flooding remains possible for the early morning through
afternoon; though current trends hint toward a weak lull, this may
change hour by hour and potential for 2-4" totals through 18z keep
potential for flash flooding possible.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!81wNcFxxIhqHFBfZgnhD58jWGBf675_9P2zjj4J1R2OSR58KOYiJBShQLNs9z5hXYZCOl0mNYO04BNFk9MlafLP08ZY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BRO...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 26499731 26439718 26039708 25869718 25809735
25849756 25979761 26239752

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Oct 5 16:11:22 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 051610
FFGMPD
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-052200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1454
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1209 PM EDT Mon Oct 05 2026

Areas affected...Southern Georgia...Northern Florida...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 051610Z - 052200Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving, potentially repeating/back-building cells
in a very saturated atmosphere and soil conditions may support
localized or reaggrivation of rapid inundation flooding.
Additional 2-4+" totals and rates over 2.5"/hr remain possible.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E Visible and 10.3um EIR show a few cooling
clusters in proximity to the deep layer moisture axis and
stationary frontal zone across northern Florida and southern
Georgia, generally located at the coast where instability is
greatest and is expected to increase further with filtered
insolation. 16z surface analysis denotes a developing surface
wave near ECP in the FL Panhandle and a secondary likely between
Valdosta and Waycross, GA, with the stationary front extending
eastward into the Georgia Bight. Each wave is providing
increased downstream moisture flux convergence in proximity to the
higher 2000 J/kg and 1500 J/kg, respectively instability pools to
feed the currently shallow convection. However, deep layer trough
is flattening but also exiting toward the northeast across
southern GA, helping to drive some surface circulation and FGEN
due to strengthening northerly flow along the Atlantic coast.
This is concurrently resulting in increased confluent upstream
flow into the Bay/Gulf county coastlines further supporting
convergence with increasing 15-20kts of inflow.

While cells in SE GA into the Atlantic are expected to be more
progressive, there are a few of them already along the front in a
favorable orientation for repeating/training in the near term and
while not fully capable of the full potential of 2.5-3"/hr rates
(given total PWats of 2.5"+), the shallow cells have had some
suggestion of 1.5-2"/hr potential and while moving over swampier
areas, streak of 2-4" totals with recently saturated upper soils,
suggest at least some inundation flooding potential will be
possible over the next few hours, especially near/in urban centers
that along I-95.

Further west, the concern is greater for localized rapid
inundation, mainly due to the higher urbanization, but the
strengthening onshore/confluent flow and frictional convergence
will allow for redevelopment upon the upwind edge of the
convective clusters. Deep layer flow parallel to the boundary as
well as increasing surface temperatures downstream into southern
GA/northern FL will help to increase modest instability for
convective maintenance. The repeating of 2-2.5"/hr rates
suggests localized 3-4" are more probable into the early
afternoon, with some aggressive 12z CAMs even as high as locally
6-7", while this seems less likely, the available moisture is
clearly there and even slight increase in surface heating within
the deeply saturated profile could quickly escalate MLCAPE values
and therefore vertical loading to support 3"/hr rates.

All considered, with deep layer moisture, modest instability and
favorable training profiles crossing an already saturated ground,
localized incidents of flash/rapid inundation flooding are
considered possible; though confidence in any given location is
below average, but slightly better along the coastal and with
urban sites.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6LQT4bEFW_4DBQAsqPVZZdsDU-OSlJdQmFY65CWEjob0RJRGCswXB-9BG46qCobVBf8FIlOhffEItvvypkXV-PIRYAc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 31728185 31668098 31148126 30388149 30098298
29918396 29598496 29618540 30008573 30458610
30988513 31518344

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Oct 5 20:22:36 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 052022
FFGMPD
FLZ000-052351-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1455
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
421 PM EDT Mon Oct 05 2026

Areas affected...portions of North FL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 052021Z - 052351Z

Summary...Thunderstorms with heavy rainfall are expected over
portions of North FL over the next few hours. Hourly rain amounts
to 3" could lead to flash flooding in urban areas.

Discussion...Showers and thunderstorms have developed near and
ahead of a backdoor cold front moving across North FL. Sea breeze
fronts are pushing slowly inland from the Atlantic and Gulf in
advance of the cold front. Precipitable water values are
2.25-2.5". There is some low-level confluence ahead of the front
at 850 hPa. ML CAPE is 1500-2000 J/kg. Effective bulk shear is
close to 25 kts.

The 12z REFS/18z HREF guidance indicates that heavy rainfall is
possible for another 3-4 hours within this area, particularly
eastern areas as the Gulf breeze front is advancing quicker
eastward given the low-level southwest flow present. Given the
ingredients, hourly rain amounts to 3" are possible. This could
lead to flash flooding in urban areas.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_-8xT40yi0076YjJGqwD5L4lmLm2gGvqJCBAyr0qPC7FND_trJBUJescOOQJrHnX4U88FidrYqUMXf35tRlP7eClIKw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...MLB...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 30238282 30098177 30168135 29418108 28888097
28248198 28388252 28828241 29648262 30098291

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Oct 5 21:44:12 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 052144
FFGMPD
FLZ000-GAZ000-060341-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1456
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
542 PM EDT Mon Oct 05 2026

Areas affected...portions of the FL Panhandle/Big Bend

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 052141Z - 060341Z

Summary...Thunderstorms with heavy rainfall are expected to remain
across portions of the FL Panhandle & Big Bend into tonight.
Hourly rain amounts to 3" with additional local totals to 5" could
lead to flash flooding.

Discussion...A frontal wave west of Appalachicola is accompanied
by a convective line that's been moving eastward over the past
several hours, with radar estimates reaching 3" in an hour at
times. Precipitable water values are ~2.25". ML CAPE is 500-2000
J/kg. Effective bulk shear is 25 kts.

The guidance appears to try to weaken the thunderstorm band as it
moves across the Apalachicola River into the FL Big Bend and keeps
heavy rainfall festering across the region into tonight within a
warm advection regime and an area of 850 hPa confluence near and
ahead of the frontal wave which shifts east to east-southeast into
Appalachee Bay with time. Given the ingredients available, hourly
rain amounts to 3" with local totals to 5" are possible. This
would be problematic in urban areas, where soils have saturated,
or over clay soils/hills.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6toasGvqRU9HCueZp3-2XsGGUKegV12AznI7kEydozm5XGlnbAbQATZIt1n1jJhpwnfht9Jkt5CkFVoZOhIXQ1IpMxk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 31028492 30698366 29458331 29898409 29448520
29498545 30188488

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Oct 5 21:47:46 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 052147
FFGMPD
FLZ000-GAZ000-060341-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1456...Corrected
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
546 PM EDT Mon Oct 05 2026

Corrected for typos

Areas affected...portions of the FL Panhandle/Big Bend

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 052141Z - 060341Z

Summary...Thunderstorms with heavy rainfall are expected to remain
across portions of the FL Panhandle & Big Bend into tonight.
Hourly rain amounts to 3" with additional local totals to 5" could
lead to flash flooding.

Discussion...A frontal wave west of Apalachicola is accompanied by
a convective line that's been moving eastward over the past
several hours, with radar estimates reaching 3" in an hour at
times. Precipitable water values are ~2.25". ML CAPE is 500-2000
J/kg. Effective bulk shear is 25 kts.

The guidance appears to try to weaken the thunderstorm band as it
moves across the Apalachicola River into the FL Big Bend and keeps
heavy rainfall festering across the region into tonight within a
warm advection regime and an area of 850 hPa confluence near and
ahead of the frontal wave which shifts east to east-southeast into
Apalachee Bay with time. Given the ingredients available, hourly
rain amounts to 3" with local totals to 5" are possible. This
would be problematic in urban areas, where soils have saturated,
or over clay soils/hills.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7Jbjm5rBUE1cUAGksLoT0zCqDUDZzVBDZB6z4C89F_s1NS0BkGIlNlMtm0ygb-9JMiwTwS5HzPH7aIqHggkCax-l3a4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 31028492 30698366 29458331 29898409 29448520
29498545 30188488

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Oct 6 03:47:50 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 060347
FFGMPD
FLZ000-060900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1457
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1146 PM EDT Mon Oct 05 2026

Areas affected...central FL Panhandle

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 060345Z - 060900Z

Summary...Localized flash flooding will remain possible across the
central FL Peninsula, including the Forgotten Coast through 09Z.
Peak hourly rainfall of 2-4 inches will be possible.

Discussion...0330Z radar imagery showed heavy showers lingering
across Apalachee Bay into the north-central FL Panhandle, located
east to northeast of a 925-820 mb low located ~70 miles west of
Apalachicola. MRMS showed a recent history of hourly rainfall
totals of 2 to 3+ inches over the northeastern Gulf with up to an
inch along I-10 to the northwest of Tallahassee. Precipitable
water values were estimated at 2.3 to 2.4 inches across the
central FL Peninsula while MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg was limited to
the immediate coastal locations of Gulf and Franklin counties via
the 03Z SPC mesoanalysis, with instability dropping off rapidly
toward the north.

The 925-850 mb low is forecast to retrograde slowly toward the
west over the next 3-6 hours while an axis of low level moisture
transport remains focused into the Forgotten Coast. Low level
convergence and confluence into the region atop diffluent flow in
the upper levels should allow for the redevelopment of showers,
with possible embedded thunder, across coastal locations of the
central FL Peninsula over the next few hours.

The environment will be supportive of hourly rainfall of 2-4
inches near the coast, although these higher rates may remain
quite isolated and/or remain just offshore. Farther north,
overrunning and lighter rainfall rates (likely less than 1 in/hr)
will continue at times with slow movement. Portions of the region
have received heavy rain over the past 48 hours which has left
soils saturated in many locations. Therefore, while the coverage
of higher rainfall rates may remain isolated in coverage, some
flash flooding may result, especially with overlap of urban or
otherwise poorly draining locations.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4BbTnDq65XYDnHS7yFC2IU0EFAh7EW275wyY5Gy3WaQL6ngFijpl67pz5OMR-EPViuDz1mvhzcb5hAQZMFAZChZOAfQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 30708509 30498468 30358434 30048412 29768407
29458425 29268464 29228507 29428563 29728592
30198620 30688581

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Oct 6 09:00:36 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 060900
FFGMPD
FLZ000-061430-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1458
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
458 AM EDT Tue Oct 06 2026

Areas affected...central FL Panhandle

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 060858Z - 061430Z

Summary...The threat for localized flash flooding will continue
across southern portions of the central FL Panhandle through 14Z.
Peak hourly rainfall of 2 to 3+ inches will be possible.

Discussion...Radar imagery has shown an increase in the coverage
and intensity of showers and isolated thunderstorms in the
vicinity of the Forgotten Coast over the past 2 hours. Radar
imagery from KEVX and KTLH showed a couple of embedded
mesocyclones (one located 40 miles southwest of Panama City and
another over eastern St. George Island) with enhanced hourly
rainfall from MRMS exceeding 3 to 4 inches at times given the
presence of effective shear between 30-40 kt and a baroclinic
boundary nearby. The increase in activity has been located to the
east of a frontal low, located ~90 miles south of Choctawatchee
Bay, associated with a quasi-stationary front that extended
eastward across the northern Gulf into the northern FL Peninsula.
MLCAPE has remained similar over the past few hours with 500-1000
J/kg confined to southern portions of Gulf and Franklin counties
via the 08Z mesoanalysis. SPC mesoanalyses also showed a slight
increase of 100-200 J/kg over the past 3 hours ending 08Z along
with high PWs values near 2.4 inches, owing to a slight increase
in lower level warm air advection.

The surface low is forecast to drift slowly northward or
northwestward over the next 3-6 hours which should allow the
eastward extending front to also move north. The RAP forecasts a
subtle increase in the magnitude of the low level flow to the east
of surface low into Gulf, Franklin and Wakulla counties, while
also indicating greater directional convergence along the elevated
portion of the boundary that clips the southern portion of the
central FL Panhandle.

Slow moving showers/thunderstorms are expected to continue
increasing in the vicinity of the Forgotten coast over the next
1-2 hours with slow movement and embedded mesocyclones possible,
containing enhanced rainfall efficiency. There is some uncertainty
with the precise latitude of heaviest rain which may end up just
offshore. However, there is enough of a threat to land that could
result in localized flash flooding over the next 3-6 hours with
the greatest threat to southern Gulf and Franklin counties.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9hVCJpeXVs6fYtL9qua9U5AZhzmebBJ-tOr1p55B2fa9EOEHQn0wUS9qC48zLLDPJm4bGmvmzjjhq6rxSyg63-nWQ_4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 30228527 30168486 30158372 29668360 29568424
29388472 29348509 29448547 29638566 29798581
30058581 30188555

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Oct 6 20:04:04 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 062003
FFGMPD
FLZ000-070200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1459
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
402 PM EDT Tue Oct 06 2026

Areas affected...Central Florida Peninsula

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 062000Z - 070200Z

SUMMARY...Slow-moving thunderstorms containing rainfall rates up
to 2.5"/hr at times may lead to isolated rainfall totals up to 5"
through this evening. This will bring the potential for isolated
flash flooding, particularly for urban areas and flood prone
locations.

DISCUSSION...A stationary front analyzed at 19Z bisects the
Florida Peninsula just south of I-4, with a surface low analyzed
in the northwestern Gulf associated with an organized cluster of
slow-moving thunderstorms tracking generally eastward. Meanwhile,
south of this front isolated to scattered thunderstorms have
developed this afternoon and are most focused along the Space and
Treasure coasts of east-central Florida. This stationary front and
overall weak/moist mid-level flow will continue to focus
slow-moving showers and thunderstorms into this evening. PWs range
from 2.4" to just over 2.5" and the WBZ height around 16k in the
region (per the 12Z TBW sounding) makes for a very tropical and
highly efficient airmass for heavy rainfall. This is seen via
limited lighting in most cells onshore, but MRMS rainfall
estimates remain impressive up to around 2-3"/hr.

Going through this evening, isolated to scattered
showers/thunderstorms should continue as inflow SBCAPE remains
above 3000 J/kg, with more widespread activity just east of the
MCV in the northwest Gulf. This activity will impact the Tampa Bay
metro area and could lead to urban flooding concerns should
activity move inland and rainfall rates remain 2-3"/hr. 12Z HREF
and REFS probs for greater than 3" per 3-hrs is widely 30-50%
around the Tampa Bay area eastward towards the Treasure and Space
coasts of central FL through 00Z tonight. Given the high FFGs and
flat/swampy ground conditions, most impacts will be confined to
urban areas and low-lying flood prone locations.

Snell

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_YhCsQx_tNWfdqTltHWF0ino4McPvAxK5oq6Y_zAwqqEYlRrjp2cu69UYNOwwW-ZWaZS_6jxNbDvOMwAbU6jzpoMARI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 28668261 28058223 27948170 28438125 28518075
28128036 27308008 27128045 27398104 27318160
26848210 27048270 27638301 28358304

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Oct 8 15:34:08 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 081533
FFGMPD
FLZ000-082100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1460
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1132 AM EDT Thu Oct 08 2026

Areas affected...Central Florida

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 081530Z - 082100Z

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing this afternoon will be capable
of producing rainfall rates in excess of 3"/hr. Flash flooding is
possible this afternoon, especially in more urbanized locations.

DISCUSSION...GOES East satellite shows mostly sunny skies over
south FL and widespread cloud cover over the northern half of the
FL Peninsula. This is generally a good demarcation for the
location of a stalled frontal boundary located over central FL
that will become the focus for thunderstorms this afternoon. The
contrast between cloud cover to the north and clearer skies to the
south will tighten the thermal/CAPE gradient already in place. The
environment is primed to produce highly efficient rainfall rates.
The 12Z TBW (Tampa) sounding measured a 2.46" PW and MLCAPE >800
J/kg. Low-to-mid level RH values were above 90%, and RH values

80% were common within the 500-150mb layer, highlighting the

impressive moisture content available within the troposphere.

Among the other notable parameters is the vertical wind shear
present. The 12Z TBW sounding measured cloud layer shear levels
near 30 kts. Per SPC sounding climatology, this is around the 90th climatological percentile. In addition, much of the state is
located beneath the right-entrance region of a 250mb jet streak
which is providing excellent upper-level divergence aloft. Between
the anomalous moisture content, the frontal boundary acting as a
surface-based trigger, and the synoptic-scale forcing aloft,
central FL is likely to contend with organized clusters of strong
thunderstorms this afternoon.

NASA SPoRT-LIS show 0-40cm soil moisture percentiles are above 90%
over much of northern FL and even much of central FL. Latest 12Z
HREF guidance shows moderate chances (40-60%) for 3-hr and 6-hr
FFG exceedance this afternoon and low chances (20-40%) for 1-hr
rainfall rates >3"/hr. This is notable considering the prolonged
S-SW low-level winds that are intersecting the frontal boundary
could cause training thunderstorm activity. Flash flooding is
possible this afternoon in areas where training thunderstorms
occur, as well as within the more urbanized communities that
contain a greater concentration of hydrophobic surfaces are
present.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-PFCv6Fki4dga6jVOvHOdkSIOvXm2aYAyeQZBQTL7QYGQJT7iGl1GyYUCqAi4pfuoQLjeagL6XY9efFViT-Dzgw5-7k$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...MFL...MLB...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 29468147 29388093 29138070 28578027 28188011
27647999 27027986 26677987 26198013 26238045
26638058 26778149 26548205 26608239 26668257
26968289 27448300 27878309 28338305 28668305
28988289 29128265 29268206

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Oct 8 21:15:24 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 082046
FFGMPD
FLZ000-090200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1461
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
446 PM EDT Thu Oct 08 2026

Areas affected...Florida Peninsula

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 082045Z - 090200Z

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing >3"/hr
rainfall rates may produce flash flooding in poor drainage areas
and in highly urbanized communities.

DISCUSSION...20Z Doppler Radar showed scattered thunderstorms over
central and southern FL, while some occasional elevated convection
flared up over northern FL. The environment remains highly
saturated with PWs reaching 2.5" in some instances. The nearby
frontal boundary has played a role in triggering thunderstorms in
central FL, while the western and eastern coasts of FL have seen
storms flare up along sea breeze fronts. From Tampa on east to
Cape Canaveral and points south, RAP mesoanalysis shows >1,000
J/kg of MLCAPE available to developing storms. The 300mb jet
circulation pattern also shows upper-level divergence remains
present within the right-entrance region of a 300mb jet streak.

Latest RAP forecast shows unusually high levels of vertical wind
shear lingering into the evening hours, as will the sufficient
instability and copious amounts of moisture aloft. It will not
take much from any lifting mechanism; sea breezes, outflow
boundaries, or the frontal boundary to generate additional storms
through 00Z. Most CAMs are in agreement that the coverage of
thunderstorms should begin to dwindle not long after 00Z and most
storms should dissipate by midnight EDT. The available moisture
and instability, along with the potential for some training
t-storms near and south of the frontal boundary, could result in
pockets of >3"/hr rainfall rates. This could lead to flash
flooding in more heavily urbanized communities and poor drainage
spots through the early evening hours.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4GPwCVhpz8RDc6TAfX_pVzHKMc7Cjf7bhDGBoy_d-ywpHkh15sQTy4BFzLIH5WcsKB4eRxS5gadBGcegC4wqJN8cn48$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 28968111 28888056 28818043 28468020 28068013
27628001 27358006 27107998 26598006 25988033
25938053 26458098 26638133 26768177 26818218
27018246 27418279 28048294 28428274 28668248
28878170

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Oct 9 18:43:50 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 091703
FFGMPD
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-092300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1462
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
101 PM EDT Fri Oct 09 2026

Areas affected...Southern AL...FL Panhandle...Southwest GA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 091700Z - 092300Z

SUMMARY...Heavy rainfall associated with Hurricane Isaias will
continue to lift north over the next several hours across southern
AL, the FL Panhandle, and southwest GA. The threat for flash
flooding will gradually increase with time.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery along with
conventional radar mosaics show the eye of Hurricane Isaias
continuing its approach to the FL Panhandle. As the storm
continues to lift north this afternoon, it will be increasingly
interacting with a frontal zone draped around the north side of
the storm's circulation.

Deep and strongly convergent southerly low to mid-level flow
around the eastern flank of the storm will surge north across the
FL Panhandle over the next several hours. This will foster an
expanding shield of heavy rainfall more regionally via deep
warm/moist air advection and associated isentropic ascent.
Gradually the poleward transport of instability will favor the
development and expansion of convection near and north of the
front in an elevated fashion. However, core instability-driven
convective bands associated with Isaias will be focusing farther
south, but will be lifting north around the storm's eastern
semicircle toward the FL Panhandle.

A nose of MUCAPE values across the eastern Gulf of America are on
the order of 1500 to 2500 J/kg in association with the deep layer
southerly flow, and much of the stronger convective banding will
be aligned with this instability axis in conjunction with stronger
low-level convergence. Central convection associated with the core
of Isaias will likely still remain largely offshore until later
this afternoon, but rainfall rates are expected to increase ahead
of this as strong deep layer forcing increases along with outer
convective banding features.

Rainfall rates of up to 1 inch/hour can be expected to arrive by
around 21Z (4PM CDT), with rates potentially reaching 2+
inches/hour shortly thereafter. These rainfall rates and an
expected increase in cell-training concerns should support some 3
to 5+ inch totals by early this evening, and this is consistent
with the 12Z HREF/REFS guidance.

FFG are very high across the region, so initially the soils/ground
conditions should be able to accommodate the front-end rainfall
ahead Isaias' central convection and impending landfall in the
western FL Panhandle, but as the rates increase and begin
involving more urbanized areas, the concerns for flash flooding
will begin to steadily increase.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-Gj_3v-RekROcZNzXa6RinTMXWN5Qy8Yz9Nz4tu4OkHm1-r31EqezN3WE60tqjGtyUlFYoSglixuhd3aCHu_jpqA1mc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...JAX...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 31848541 31658440 31208357 30648326 30168338
29828371 29578433 29508524 29698574 30038631
30108706 30188800 30558836 31068821 31528756
31788659

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Oct 9 20:27:16 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 092027
FFGMPD
FLZ000-GAZ000-100225-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1463
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
425 PM EDT Fri Oct 09 2026

Areas affected...Northern FL & Southeast GA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 092025Z - 100225Z

SUMMARY...Outer bands from Isaias are approaching northern
Florida, while pockets of heavy showers and thunderstorms along a
nearby frontal boundary may produce excessive rainfall rates up to
3"/hr. Flash flooding is possible late afternoon and into this
evening.

DISCUSSION...GOES East satellite shows a cluster of thunderstorms
off the Southeast coast with a ribbon congested cumulus clouds
effectively marking the location of a quasi-stationary front.
Doppler Radar also shows the eastern most outer bands of Isaias
tracking NNE and heading for the nature coast.

The Florida Peninsula is caught between a tightening pressure
gradient with high pressure to the north and northeast, and
powerful Hurricane Isaias to the west. This is fostering a SErly
925-850mb flow pattern over the Florida Peninsula and off the Gulf
Stream that is forecast to push this frontal boundary northward as
a warm front this evening. Instability is highest over northern FL
where as much as 2,000 J/kg is available. There also remains no
shortage of tropical moisture available, highlighted by >2.25" PWs
that will stick around through this evening.

As Isaias tracks north, so will the frontal boundary as 1000-850mb
layer warm-air advection (WAA) advances northward. The tightening
theta-e gradient will develop additional storms along the both
I-95 and I-10 corridors into this evening. Low-level easterly
winds off the Carolina coast will accelerate and provide
additional moisture just north of the frontal boundary. RAP
guidance shows a narrow zone of 925-850mb mass flux convergence
over northern FL beyond 00Z. This area is likely to become the
focus for increasing thunderstorm coverage, and potential for some back-building storms given the gradual northward advancement of
the frontal boundary.

FFGs are lowest from the Jacksonville metro area on north along
I-95 into southeast GA and along I-10 where 1hr FFGs are as low as
2.5" in some cases. Given the highly saturated soundings that
include increasing instability and warm cloud layer depths of at
least 13,000ft, highly efficient rainfall rates up to 3"/hr are
anticipated late afternoon and into this evening. Flash flooding
is possible with more heavily urbanized communities and low-lying,
poor drainage areas most at-risk.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!924-T7v37vl02QXisA1zCS0_jA0NZwuTFH6CbiN9PFxIrftq-gK2g6m5g6U0oBnD5yBl6LJmZ_d71Ovhem5kNY5OPdI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 31098223 31048174 30968150 30828139 30568122
30248112 29918110 29488117 29448136 29408163
29258187 29078197 28898206 28648216 28448225
28388251 28418264 28598283 28808297 28988312
29178332 29358346 29628369 30048369 30208361
30378352 30748309 30948268
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Oct 9 22:08:00 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 092207
FFGMPD
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-100320-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1464
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
606 PM EDT Fri Oct 09 2026

Areas affected...Florida Panhandle...Southern Alabama...Southwest
Georgia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 092205Z - 100320Z

SUMMARY...

--Isaias will make landfall soon and produce torrential rainfall
rates of 3-4" per hour within its northern eyewall.

--Rainfall totals between 2-5" and localized amounts up to 8" are
likely for areas directly within Isaias's path. Similar amounts
are possible within Isaias's eastern outer bands.

--Significant flash flooding impacts are likely; including but not
limited to flooded/impassable roads, water rescues, and flooding
in numerous structures that include homes and businesses.

DISCUSSION...

Isaias is barreling towards the Florida Panhandle with landfall
expected within the next few hours. Isaias is feeling the affects
of both increasing vertical wind shear and is undergoing
extra-tropical transition. This is evident in satellite
representation with a large baroclinic leaf of moisture of water
vapor over the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic, and the majority of the precipitation shield is displaced to the north and east of
Isaias's circulation.

Doppler Radar shows the northern eyewall of Isaias heading towards
an area as far west as Pensacola and as far east as Tyndall AFB.
It is between these locations of the Florida Panhandle where the
most significant impacts from Isaias will be felt. Farther east,
the outer bands of Isaias will extend all the way to Apalachee
Bay. To as far east as the Nature Coast, the outer bands will be
positioned within an area of 925-850mb wind convergence and
continue to support additional strong thunderstorms over the FL
Big Bend and on down the Nature Coast this evening.

The one bit of positive news is that Isaias is becoming more
progressive and its eyewall will continue to lose its structure
and intensity as it moves into southern AL tonight. The window for
the prolific rainfall rates is going to be a couple hours at most
within the eyewall. However, that is still enough time for those
directly in Isaias's path to receive significant rainfall amounts
that pose a major threat to life and property this evening. The
21Z WoFS members utilizing 5-minute rainfall rates show anywhere
from 0.25-0.40" as the storm advances inland, which indicate
3-4"/hr rainfall rates and locally higher rates possible within
the eyewall. Similar rates are possible within the eastern bands
over the Big Bend as well.

Local residents should follow the guidance of local officials as
Isaias advances north through the central Gulf Coast region this
evening. Significant and life-threatening flash flooding is
expected in the path of Isaias this evening.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!461wSvACDESBqMm3a22z6B26Ki8Y0-cmmxhRcKozJDTVxDO-ul-56RJ-s-j0M2XxLU1rYtxSx3nJVhppM4-kUFdc9KU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32128694 32108620 31938569 31838520 31678476
31418438 31168388 30908357 30698338 30488336
30178356 29878370 29588412 29568502 29798585
30078649 30158690 30168735 30178766 30468783
30758789 31148786 31498769 31888745
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Oct 10 02:16:54 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 100216
FFGMPD
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-100800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1465
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1016 PM EDT Fri Oct 09 2026

Areas affected...Big Bend of Florida into Southwest/central
Georgia...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 100215Z - 100800Z

SUMMARY...Training eastern outer bands of Hurricane Isaias.

DISCUSSION...Regional RADAR mosaic shows Isaias has made landfall
further west near Destin. The overall structure of Isaias is also
starting to take on more extratropical characteristics with a
broadening dry slot rounding the southern edge toward the
northeast into the Big Bend of the northeast Gulf of America,
while the inner core is starting to broaden further enhancing the
inner core band within the eastern quadrant currently oriented
from E Franklin county back toward Jackson county. This will be a
narrower band but still have stronger speed and therefore moisture
convergence for efficient heavy rainfall and capability of
2-3"/hr. Slow eastward drift will continue as Isaias wobbles
northward, however, given the narrow nature of the band the heavy
rainfall footprint will be smaller but moving through areas
already under flash flooding warnings. Additional stripe of 2-4"
across the central FL panhandle into far SE AL, SW GA will likely
continue in flooding conditions.

Further east...
The main outer band remains best aligned with the warm conveyor
belt of the cyclone and traps the greatest moisture content
through depth in a deeply confluent flow from surface through
700mb with 60 to 75 degrees of confluence across the eastern Gulf
toward the intersection of the stationary front across Northern
Florida. Total PWat values remain around 2.5" in this outer band.
In addition, warm waters and higher theta-E values help to
maintain a modestly broad instability axis generally aligned or
slightly west of the WCB, moisture stream. Saturated profiles
with MLCAPEs over 1000-1500 J/kg, and IVT values of 700-850 kg/m/s
per CIRA LVT layers over 200 kg/m/s through 500mb should support
flux for 3"/hr rates with occasionally higher capability toward 4"
locally. Unlike the band further west, it is going to remain
broader and slower in eastward progression. There remains
uncertainty to longevity of convergence upstream over the source
region for extreme localized totals, but there remain some
suggestions for a stripe of additional 4-5" totals across the Big
Bend northward into far southern GA. Overall totals will likely
reduce further north as dry slot expands northeastward and overall
moisture values through depth diminish slightly and instability
may reduce vertical vigor through southern Georgia. Still 2-4"
totals are possible which will help to expand areas of flash
flooding likely through the overnight period.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_Dxxd5s8bFq32R8RXS4_-LUN9N33lQzuVr4I5FyGskgDXvcMlLeYJEnfDCTbe1fs7pPzKq2cj7pJ8AYwHm2rIWL_pMA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 31708495 31708377 31438297 30938261 30198248
29148264 29118300 29458338 29908383 29988416
29748453 29618496 30138504 30768545 31118563
31508546
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Oct 10 02:56:00 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 100255
FFGMPD
GAZ000-ALZ000-100900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1466
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1054 PM EDT Fri Oct 09 2026

Areas affected...Central and Southern Alabama...West Central
Georgia...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 100300Z - 100900Z

SUMMARY...Inner core of Isaias expected to transition to broader,
prolonged moderate to occasionally heavy precipitation shield
across. Broad 2-3" totals with embedded higher 3-4" totals
through 09z, likely to result in flash flooding conditions.

DISCUSSION...Even a hour or so after landfall, the broader
northern band of Isaias is starting to shrink in areal coverage
for the highest reflectivity and therefore rates still over
2.5-3"/hr as it is crossing out of Florida into S Alabama.
However, the downstream moderate rainfall rate shield continues to
expand across central AL into W GA taking on a more traditional
baroclinic comma head appearance in regional RADAR. This is in
response to the strengthening of the TROWAL as the gradient
further tightens in the northern hemisphere of the circulation and
entering the broadening entrance region of the 70-90kt 300mb jet
that expands across N MS, N AL, all of TN into the Southern
Appalachians. Solid easterly moisture flux off the Atlantic
combined with southeasterly moisture flux still over 70kts along
the western branch of the TROWAL (denoted well by the remaining
inner eastern band convection across the central FL Peninsula
arching westward into south-central AL. Embedded 1-2"/hr rates
could still be expected along the deformation zone/interface with
with the TROWAL, though the overall shield rates of .5-1"/hr will
continue to compound through the overnight period. As a result, a
broad area of 2-3" is expected across much of southern and central
AL with a few stripes of 3-4"+ along the southeast portions of the
shield in SE AL/SW GA/W central GA over a 6hr period. FFG values
already compromised across S AL are still likely to be exceeded
but starting to shift from the 1hr and 3hr exceedance toward the
3hr and 6hr exceedance. Further north, 3-6hr FFG values of 3-4"
and 4-5" respectively are likely to be exceeded locally and given
the broad footprint, flash flooding will start to shift more over
toward main stem/riverine flooding (please refer to AHD from
National Water Center for additional details).

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4xKK1DmnO_FamomlzcW3g9oiN-7CCxUm0iSr-jrlpHJS0jh6PsISUawP7GIO8TjrlQ5GOW6mWiVoAzmPthr6dNjXjcU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 33738506 33408422 32598376 31858404 31518556
31118593 31078684 31778756 32428791 33238768
33728683
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Oct 10 03:26:42 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 100326
FFGMPD
SCZ000-FLZ000-GAZ000-100900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1467
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1125 PM EDT Fri Oct 09 2026

Areas affected...Coastal Northeast Florida...Georgia...Southern
South Carolina...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 100325Z - 100900Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving, potentially back-building supercells near
lifting coastal front may allow for additional localized incidents
of flash flooding due to 2-3"/hr rates.

DISCUSSION...03z surface analysis shows a weak surface inflection
near, just north of Orlando along the older stationary front.
GOES-E 3.9um SWIR loop and theta-E gradient analysis suggest the
surface front remains along the First Coast lifting northward
where it becomes a bit more ill-defined along the SE GA coast
before sharpening again near 31N. Low level wind response has
resulted in strong moisture flux convergence along portions of the
boundary for elevated thunderstorm activity to blossom through the
last few hours, especially near Duval county and along the front
that extends eastward along 31N. Very high Tds in the upper 70s
with still some modest temperatures differences in the low 80s
maintains a solid conditionally unstable airmass in proximity to
the front and therefore the coast. Strongly veered low level wind
profile including wind speed maintains solid helicity and bulk
shear for modest updraft rotation. This further increases moisture
flux convergence into the updraft for efficient rainfall
production of 2-3"/hr rates. Additionally, southerly inflow along
the upwind flank has reduced forward speeds to allow for increased
residency across and in proximity to the Jacksonville Metro
resulting in localized 2-4" totals in 1-2 hours resulting in
localized flash flooding.

This environment is expected to maintain/continue but slowly shift
northward along the GA coast. In addition, RAP forecast of
southeasterly 850mb winds will further press the stationary front
toward the central SC coast as well. This will bring MLCAPEs
toward 1500-2000 J/kg. Surface winds are expected to be
northeasterly across the Carolinas and veering southward to
further increase convergence for scattered thunderstorm activity
but maintain potential for back-building/redevelopment near the
frontal zone. This will support cells to remain in close
proximity to coastal locations including Savannah and Charleston,
SC though most of the late morning...though trends are for a
slight delay in arrival further north. Additionally, best
convergence may remain offshore, as may the cells which would
obviously reduce any potential for flash flooding. Still, the
proximity remains close and with such highly efficient rainfall
rates, rapid inundation flooding remains possible.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5K5-EMZKGL7fKm5zpgMtocGEOnINCiGYyx21iy7IRmi8Spb7RsbNguqzyumHpclsy-VCNejwvHJ3aJ9chvgDMEwQCa0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32558075 32238049 31708096 31568105 30878135
29998125 29658153 29998193 30948213 31778186
32358137
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Oct 10 05:17:24 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 100517
FFGMPD
GAZ000-ALZ000-100900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1466...Corrected
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
115 AM EDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Corrected for In concerning line...Flash Flooding considered Likely

Areas affected...Central and Southern Alabama...West Central
Georgia...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 100300Z - 100900Z

SUMMARY...Inner core of Isaias expected to transition to broader,
prolonged moderate to occasionally heavy precipitation shield
across. Broad 2-3" totals with embedded higher 3-4" totals
through 09z, likely to result in flash flooding conditions.

DISCUSSION...Even a hour or so after landfall, the broader
northern band of Isaias is starting to shrink in areal coverage
for the highest reflectivity and therefore rates still over
2.5-3"/hr as it is crossing out of Florida into S Alabama.
However, the downstream moderate rainfall rate shield continues to
expand across central AL into W GA taking on a more traditional
baroclinic comma head appearance in regional RADAR. This is in
response to the strengthening of the TROWAL as the gradient
further tightens in the northern hemisphere of the circulation and
entering the broadening entrance region of the 70-90kt 300mb jet
that expands across N MS, N AL, all of TN into the Southern
Appalachians. Solid easterly moisture flux off the Atlantic
combined with southeasterly moisture flux still over 70kts along
the western branch of the TROWAL (denoted well by the remaining
inner eastern band convection across the central FL Peninsula
arching westward into south-central AL. Embedded 1-2"/hr rates
could still be expected along the deformation zone/interface with
with the TROWAL, though the overall shield rates of .5-1"/hr will
continue to compound through the overnight period. As a result, a
broad area of 2-3" is expected across much of southern and central
AL with a few stripes of 3-4"+ along the southeast portions of the
shield in SE AL/SW GA/W central GA over a 6hr period. FFG values
already compromised across S AL are still likely to be exceeded
but starting to shift from the 1hr and 3hr exceedance toward the
3hr and 6hr exceedance. Further north, 3-6hr FFG values of 3-4"
and 4-5" respectively are likely to be exceeded locally and given
the broad footprint, flash flooding will start to shift more over
toward main stem/riverine flooding (please refer to AHD from
National Water Center for additional details).

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_MlIsVkAcfNZ8-0j0rt7Q-vW6zml0Pkf_GGFHkZWV8yHbRl9ZjGqcocX-1SGJEuATC9cY_soG0bEYSYd7PZDRcyN4VM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 33738506 33408422 32598376 31858404 31518556
31118593 31078684 31778756 32428791 33238768
33728683
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Oct 10 08:23:28 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 100822
FFGMPD
SCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-101400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1468
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
421 AM EDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Areas affected...West central to Northeast Georgia...Adj.
East-central AL & Far Upstate SC...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 100820Z - 101400Z

SUMMARY...Axis of prolonged moderate rainfall with occasional
embedded bursts up to 1"/hr. Broad area of 2-3"/6hrs may result
in localized flooding concerns though mostly across urban or
typically prone areas.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E 3.9um loop shows Isaias has rapidly
deteriorated in vertical development and has transitioned toward
an extra-tropical cyclone in shape and structure. As a result,
frontal isentropic ascent has begun to be the main driver of
precipitation especially along and north of the core near the
deepening mid-level low in central AL. At the surface, strong
northeast to easterly flow is helping to reinforce, strengthen
FGEN as the warm sector is trying to advance northward as well.
This is steepening the isentropes across south-central Georgia to
coastal South Carolina though maintaining strong confluent inflow
along the cool conveyor belt.

Warm conveyor moisture and higher theta-E remains across the
eastern Gulf of America and is ascending across the front with
deep ample moisture and still in the 2-2.25" range near the
effective triple point near Columbus, GA. Modest conditionally
unstable air with MUCAPEs of 500-750 J/kg are expected to spread
over the slowly lifting warm front across central GA as well;
broad veering/WAA 850-700mb profiles will likely support some
sufficient convergence for slant-wise convective elements with a
SE to NE orientation through the TROWAL and will likely be transverse/orthogonal to a sharp deformation zone that bisects GA
from Columbus to Upstate SC which also appears to be the best
vertical ascent/divergence aloft due to the broad right entrance
of the upper-level jet. As such, broad .5"-.75"/hr rates will
have embedded potential for those SE to NW repeating slant-wise
ascent elements that could be up to 1-1.25"/hr occasionally. As
such, a slow rise of rainfall totals along the axis may reach
longer duration FFG values in the 3-6hr range though impacts
across metro Atlanta and other urban centers along the axis will
pose the greatest potential for slow rise flooding concerns. As
such, flash flooding is considered possible but definitely
transitioning from a rapid rise toward a broader areal, slow rise
of run-off and stream/main stem river flooding. Please refer to
any AHD products from the National Water Center.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7IFr0__EbC7d9H_M4lA1nlTTOBJrjVT4kbQF1aTjDvXOFQzoiqQyVL4-Qq2IzhC_P59opvo0HXR7pwpPK_bpkLGFygQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...GSP...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 34748306 33868284 33008323 32318396 32108504
32618546 33798500 34338455 34738388
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Oct 10 09:06:08 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 100905
FFGMPD
SCZ000-GAZ000-101500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1469
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
505 AM EDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Areas affected...Coastal Plain of Georgia & South Carolina...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 100905Z - 101500Z

SUMMARY...Near coastal, slow moving thunderstorms with capability
of 2-3"/hr rates and localized totals of 3-5" may result in rapid
inundation flooding, especially near urban centers.

DISCUSSION...09z surface analysis shows effective warm front of
Post T.C. Isaias lifting northward through SW GA into northern GA;
though along the Atlantic coast, the front continues to sharpen
between the coast and the Gulf stream resulting in strengthening
FGEN and surface moisture convergence along the Georgia coast
northward to central SC coast before the front angles more due
east around 31.7N. VWP and RAP analsys continue to show 850 to
700mb confluent flow from the outer band nearing the central west
coast of FL across to the east coast within the core of the warm
conveyor belt now over the center of the Peninsula. Total PWats
remain very high over 2.25", but mostly driven below the boundary
layer given upper 70s to a spot or two of 80F Tds to feed the high
deep layer moisture convergence. A wedge of enhanced MLCAPEs
along the Gulf stream is nosing northward toward the frontal
zone/convergence axis helping to further spur new development
throughout the warm sector in the Georgia Bight. However, recently
new cells are developing along the coast as well.

Effective bulk shear is maximized along the new developing
stationary front axis (noted well in theta-E graident) that
crosses southern GA from the center of Isaias across to Hilton
Head Island. Values of 40 to 70kts, suggest increasing
organization and rotating updrafts near the front will slow
northward propagation while additionally increasing localized
moisture flux to support 2-3"/hr rates. Hi-Res CAMs are
struggling with the storm scale convergence for development though
HRRR appears to be simulating the recent coastal development
better than the WoFS and ARW solutions that favor cores in the
center of the Gulf Stream. Still, given efficient rainfall
production spots of 2-5" are possible and while being along the
sandy coastal plain, there are sufficient urban locations that
localized rapid inundation flooding remains possible through the
early morning hours, slowly expanding northward from central GA
toward Savannah and eventually near Charleston, SC.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7LEfNsYHfCDC-3jFS_uNXAuVUonj1hOUGI4mKH90_AMZW5Fz2nZy99rpz-OOkJlsrQ_ATkxe_auFPY1KBDitB-DMxyU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...ILM...JAX...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 33737925 33357895 32607987 32308040 31928087
31368120 31058131 31218182 32048185 32838158
33418101 33728020
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Oct 10 14:32:00 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 101431
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-102030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1470
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1030 AM EDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Areas affected...Portions of the Southern Appalachians and
Interior Southeast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 101430Z - 102030Z

SUMMARY...Flash flooding will continue to be possible through
mid-afternoon as rainfall rates gradually increase with time.
Short-term urban impacts may occur across north-central to
northeast GA, with more terrain-focused impacts becoming a concern
across upstate SC and southwest NC this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR/WV suite shows a well-defined
TROWAL axis pivoting across large areas of the Southeast U.S.
around the eastern flank of what is now Post-T.C. Isaias. Deep
layer moist east to southeast flow into the southern Appalachians
and adjacent Piedmont areas of the Southeast will combine with a
gradual uptick in instability with the diurnal heating cycle to
promote a gradual increase in the coverage and intensity of shower
and thunderstorm activity going through the mid-afternoon hours.
This will be aided by divergent flow aloft downstream of the upper
trough which coupled with upslope flow into the higher terrain
should yield corridors of more focused lift.

The latest RAP analysis does show some elevated instability up
across areas of northeast GA up through southwest NC with as much
as 250 to 500 J/kg of MUCAPE. This alone coupled with the
orographics will support efficient and rather shallow-top
convection, and especially with the available moisture in the low
to mid-levels of the column. As boundary layer heating increases,
slight deeper convection will become possible.

Already radar shows some some linear convective structures across
north-central GA that are lifting north-northeastward into the
general vicinity of northeast GA, with some uptick in shower
activity seen across upstate SC as well. The convective trends and
latest hires model guidance suggests an uptick in rainfall rates
in time, with potential for 1 to 2 inch/hour rainfall rates.

Overall, the highest rates in the near-term should be across
north-central to northeast GA, but by mid-afternoon and beyond,
the rates up across upstate SC and southwest NC should increase.
Generally as much as 2 to 4 inches of additional rain are expected
for this MPD valid time period which is consistent with the latest
multi-model hires consensus.

Some urban flash flooding concerns will be possible in the
near-term across north-central to northeast GA, but more
terrain-focused impacts will gradually be possible this afternoon
for upstate SC and southwest NC.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9jL4ZyvSh0Iqty0GRu-Nqa4bk8H_KtrYmQXqNhJ3aJcuS_Y3hKNaG3s3ceHNh69fNUB-AtuUEozwqkuoAkavtBfgSjU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...FFC...GSP...MRX...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 35998200 35828142 35448111 34988106 34628115
34098147 33268159 32898201 32808279 32998332
33578371 34488410 35088398 35518352 35888273
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Oct 10 15:27:22 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 101527
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-FLZ000-GAZ000-102125-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1471
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1125 AM EDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Areas affected...FL Big Bend/North FL...Southern and Eastern
GA...Central and Eastern SC...Southeast NC

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 101525Z - 102125Z

SUMMARY...Locally slow-moving bands and clusters of heavy showers
and thunderstorms will continue across portions of the coastal
plain of the Southeast U.S. High rainfall rates and localized
persistence of these rates will continue to foster a threat for
flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E visible satellite imagery along
with radar and surface observations shows broken bands and
clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms impacting the coastal
plain of the Southeast U.S., with the greater concentrations of
activity generally noted across central and eastern SC, and to a
lesser extent across the FL Big Bend/north FL vicinity and into
far southern GA.

Deep layer moist/unstable flow continues to infiltrate much of the
region around the far eastern flanks of Post-T.C. Isaias, with
MLCAPE values of 1500 to 2000 J/kg, and PWs generally around 2.25+
inches. This combination of strong thermodynamics and deep
moisture along with a belt of 30 to 40+ kt effective bulk shear
values should combine with additional surface heating and focused
low-level convergence for a gradual uptick in shower and
thunderstorm activity over the next several hours.

The greater coverage of convection and generally the higher
rainfall rates should tend to be across the SC Lowcountry/Pee Dee
region, where recent HRRR runs have been suggesting some very
well-organized and slow-moving supercell structures over the next
several hours. Some of this activity is currently occurring
onshore and also offshore of the SC coast. Some of the enhanced
focus of this convection is in response to a strong nearby warm
front which is enhancing forcing in conjunction with a strong
southeast low-level jet overrunning it. The HRRR is advertising
locally some very high rainfall totals given the slow cell-motions.

Areas farther south down across southern and eastern GA and
adjacent areas of north FL and the FL Big Bend will have the focus
of a surface trough and approaching upstream cold front that will
drive the low-level support along with boundary layer
heating/instability.

Additional rainfall totals across eastern/southern GA and into FL
will generally tend to be as high as 3 to 4+ inches of rain in a
very localized fashion. However, heavier totals of up to 4 to 6+
inches will be possible across areas of central and eastern SC
with these slow-moving supercell structures. It is possible that
by later this afternoon, areas of southeast NC may get into some
of these impacts as well. Additional areas of flash flooding will
continue to be possible.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-3BkcH5uGFeSeVNTIgd9Nr4-k85HsjKtRMyFoWXTR1yRWjZBbPQsr3DOTYTjMAEG_VLZzk4_MIj17nIpMinZXZacLZ4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...FFC...GSP...ILM...JAX...RAH...TAE...
TBW...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34848011 34677876 34297796 33727790 33227831
32417923 31828047 30908131 29478257 29308347
29658403 30198387 31308335 32218258 32918185
33608149 34438118
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Oct 10 18:12:38 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 101812
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-110010-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1472
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
210 PM EDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Areas affected...Southwest U.S.

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 101810Z - 110010Z

SUMMARY...Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop today
across the Southwest U.S. Locally heavy rainfall rates of up to 1
to 2 inches/hour will be possible, and this may result in some
areas of flash flooding. This will include potential impacts to
the normally dry washes, burn scars and slot canyons.

DISCUSSION...GOES-W GeoColor satellite imagery over the last
couple of hours along with MRMS data has been showing some
development and localized expansion of shower and thunderstorm
activity across areas of southwest UT, and separately down across
southwest AZ and adjacent areas of the northern Baja Peninsula.

Much of the current activity across southwest UT is more connected
to increasing deep layer moisture transport, orographics and some
modest upper-jet forcing over the region. Whereas down across
southwest AZ and the adjacent Baja Peninsula, it is more connected
to increasing southerly low-level moisture and instability
transport off of the Gulf of CA in response to the approach of
T.S. Rachel. This is confirmed by the latest experimental
CIRA-Layered Vapor Transport product.

A nose of SBCAPE values reaching 1000+ J/kg has reached up across
southwest AZ and far southeast CA, and over the next several
hours, a more regional increase in boundary layer instability is
expected via filtered solar insolation. The increase in
instability along with a broader increase in moisture through the
column will encourage the further development and expansion of
mainly scattered showers and thunderstorms over the next several
hours. This will be further aided by areas of orographic ascent.

PW anomalies continue to increase in association with T.S.
Rachel's mid and high level moisture and the increasing low-level
Gulf of CA contribution, and by later today these anomalies for
many areas will be exceeding the 95th percentile of climatology.

Rainfall rates may reach as high as 1 to 2 inches/hour with some
of the more organized convective cores today, and the latest hires
CAM guidance and general thermodynamic trends suggest at least an
isolated threat for some 2 to 3 inch rainfall totals. Areas of
southeast CA and southern AZ will be at greatest risk for these
totals given greater moisture and instability concentrations.

This may result in some areas of flash flooding, with the normally
dry washes, burn scar areas, and slot canyons at greatest risk for
impacts.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-2kw7EmV8IGh19OdSWVthPDVHh-9eznkJd7pSnioZ3ZAQGsZIv8sLn0Btbvhz5QVtEhmwbNKPKmKMUx9y5VqGj-8kyc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...FGZ...GJT...LOX...PSR...SGX...SLC...TWC...
VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38921035 38820865 38030823 37060848 36130915
35320989 34181036 33161025 32160962 31290988
31221182 31591286 31951388 32201512 32221659
32541746 33221818 33771912 34421901 34681790
35101654 36051519 37311423 38081329 38611191
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Oct 10 21:59:44 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 102159
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-110400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1473
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
556 PM EDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Areas affected...Northeast GA...Western SC...Western NC

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 102200Z - 110400Z

SUMMARY...The combination of increasing moisture transport, rising
instability, and steadfast southeasterly upslope flow will cause
hourly rainfall rates to surpass 1"/hr in mountainous terrain at
times. With soils growing more saturated, areas of flash flooding
are likely to occur. Locations most at risk are in steep/rugged
terrain where landslides are also possible.

DISCUSSION...21Z surface analysis showed Post-T.C. Isaias over
central AL with its frontal structure consisting of an occluded
front stretching into western GA, a cold front extending south
towards the FL Panhandle, and an elongated stationary front over
central GA and SC. Doppler radar and GOES East visible imagery
show a cluster of storms along a pre-frontal trough over eastern
GA and southern SC, with renewed areas of showers and storms
forming in central GA close to the stationary front. Storms around
Augusta, GA produced between 1.5-2.0"/hr rainfall rates and
farther north, 15-minute rainfall rates per MRMS have approached
0.40", suggesting >1"/hr rates have occurred in some spots. These
rates already caused MRMS CREST max unit streamflows to steadily
rise over the past hour with some readings approaching 200 cfs/smi
in western SC.

Both GFS/ECMWF model guidance show an IVT >800 kg/m/s turning N-NE
over central SC and oriented at the southern Appalachians between
00-06Z. As the stationary front to the south lifts as a warm front
this evening, elevated instability (MUCAPE) will also advance
northward with the 20Z HRRR and 18Z RRFS showing between 250-500
J/kg of MUCAPE in western SC/NC. Latest 18Z HREF probabilistic
guidance shows 6-hr QPF > 5-yr ARI probabilities up to 40-50% in
the Blue Ridge of western NC between 00-06Z this evening. When
accounting for prolonged upslope enhancement and warm cloud layers
over 12,000ft deep just east of the higher terrain, the
environment is becoming increasingly ripe for flash flooding in
the complex/rugged terrain of the western Carolinas, and
potentially as far south and west as northeast GA.

There is concern for landslides in the eastern most mountains this
evening. Should training thunderstorms ensue along these mountain
ranges, locally significant flash flooding will be possible this
evening with localized rainfall totals potentially exceeding 4".
Residents should ensure they have a reliable way of receiving
warnings and updates issued from their local WFOs and local
officials this evening.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!58D73MLj37mB5Jq_6c3XWgdOtr5Fv50NePzf8XszgNWAKO3qL-DubMPR7bqYIyKQS2y90FGXUGGmQVSxRy6jsS80njo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...FFC...GSP...MRX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 36618120 36598097 36508085 36358075 36108074
35798081 35348102 34918134 33788203 33978317
34338368 34798388 35328380 35448357 35598311
35808267 36008212 36218169 36438155 36578142
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Oct 10 23:59:12 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 102359
FFGMPD
AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-110530-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1474
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
758 PM EDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Areas affected...Southern CA...Western AZ...Far Southern NV

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 110000Z - 110530Z

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms ahead of Tropical Storm Rachel
will produce up to 2"/hr maximum rainfall rates and may cause
areas of flash flooding this evening.

DISCUSSION...Tropical Storm Rachel continues to undergo
extratropical transition ahead of a closed low to the west of its
circulation. As Rachel's mid-level circulation is captured by the
closed low this evening, Rachel's 500mb center will be directed
almost due north just west of Tijuana while 200-500mb heights
aloft become negatively tilted, maximizing upper-level divergence
over southern CA. At the same time, Rachel's approach will
accelerate the IVTs aloft to exceptionally strong levels from the
Peninsular Range on east throughout the Lower Colorado River
Valley. By 06Z tonight, NAEFS shows IVT values >750 kg/m/s over
Yuma on north along the Colorado River, which would surpass the
highest observed IVT values for this time of year in the CFSR
climatology (1979-2009). Plus, the ECMWF show PWs that could
challenge monthly records in southern CA as Rachel's remnant
circulation moves ashore tonight. PWs over 1.5" will be common,
which are in excess of the 99.5 climatological percentile
throughout all of southern CA and the northern two-thirds of AZ
this evening.

These parameters all highlight a remarkable source of moisture
over the Desert Southwest for October, that also happened to be
paired with rising MUCAPE. RAP mesoanalysis shows 200-400 J/kg of
MUCAPE rises over the past 3-hours over the Lower CO River Valley.
MUCAPE within the highlighted areas along and east of the
Peninsular Range will reside between 500-1,000 J/kg, providing
sufficient instability for storms within this moist of an
environment to produce 1.5-2.0"/hr rainfall rates. Storms
percolating over the Gulf of California will have the ability to
drift north into far southern CA and western AZ thanks to >30 kts
of effective bulk shear as well, helping to sustain these storms
even as they exit the higher theta-e environment to the south.
With repeated rounds of storms tracking over areas that have
already dealt with rounds of storms this afternoon, some soils
will become more saturated and at-risk for flash flooding this
evening. Poor drainage areas, rugged/steep terrain, and dry washes
are also vulnerable to flash flooding this evening.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!79hT6UcI8imJXfVHT_4yqarGSKxiCjB3naJrrCN9Z2n2pZKo0Hff-Qy4smibsfhE57OE6LxJMTOHrWR_rDSvD9PikIE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PSR...SGX...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 35781436 35761408 35471356 34721338 33611348
33231359 32621394 32301444 32311511 32311586
32281661 32451722 32741749 33111734 33631684
34201668 34691633 35151575 35561512
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Oct 11 03:42:40 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 110342
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-110930-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1475
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1141 PM EDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Areas affected...Southern Appalachians and Eastern Foothills...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 110345Z - 110930Z

SUMMARY...Strong upslope flow with embedded convective lines
moving from south to north to further enhanced localized rain
rates up to 1.25"/hr (1.5"/hr in lower Foothills). Broad 1-2"
through Southern Appalachians with more focused 2-3" totals likely
to maintain flash flooding overnight.

DISCUSSION...03z surface analysis shows Post T.C. Isaias center
over N AL with an occluded front through to a triple point low
northeast of Atlanta, GA, where a southward attendant cold front
is starting to press more eastward under influence of shortwave
rotating through the southeast quadrant of the upper-low. The
stationary front connects northeastward toward a secondary surface
wave southeast of Anderson, SC; likely near the western edge of
the warm conveyor belt and deepest moisture. RAP analysis depicts
nose of 1250-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE near this wave and enhanced deep
layer convergence. This aligns northward through the TROWAL and
is supported a south to north band of embedded convective cells
from Spartanburg, SC to Burke, NC county capable of 1-1.5"/hr
rates. Very slow eastward push has supported localized 2-3"
totals in the last few hours and invigorated a corridor of ongoing
flash flooding.

From the secondary low, a warm front bisects SC toward Georgetown,
this front will continue to lift northward through the early
overnight period, but north of the boundary surface to 925mb winds
of 30-40kts will continue to push moderately moist air into the NC
and SW VA Appalachians in advance of the stronger convergent bands
as they press eastward. CIRA LVT in the surface to 850mb layer
remains very impressive across NC with 200+ kg/m/s through the
state allowing for solid upslope and consistent moderate rainfall
with rates up to .5"/hr; but 850-700mb and 700-500mb southerly
flow at 40-50kts and modest veering/convergent wind profile fairly
orthogonal to the terrain will continue to support the higher LVT
through greater depth and any embedded convective cores could
still support localized 1.25-1.5"/hr totals.

The cells along the cold front should be a bit more scattered in
nature given slightly reduced deeper layer moisture but after
solid rains/totals of 3-6" earlier through the day in NC, any
additional rainfall at rates over 1"/hr and additional spot totals
of 2-3"+ are likely to reaggrivate flash flooding conditions and
expand larger streams/riverine flooding through the overnight
hours, especially as FFG values continue to drop below 1-1.5"/hr
and <2.5/3hrs in much of the MPD area of concern.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4yBHF1xz06n1VR2GqHgZyF8t3gamm0XTayCjEwVEO3KPZk5LfSQA0XwVhQDRrPwBCo1OHrhtnFqxnCtx_UmmWRlL-RI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...FFC...GSP...RAH...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 37407959 36797929 36128004 35468042 34948078
34618099 34228132 33548221 33658288 34138344
34838356 35218322 35788249 36068195 36598137
37028064 37318007
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Oct 11 04:58:50 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 110458
FFGMPD
AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-111100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1476
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1257 AM EDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Areas affected...Southern California...Southern Nevada...Western
Arizona...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 110500Z - 111100Z

SUMMARY...Post T.C. Rachel

DISCUSSION...Inner core of Post T.C. Rachel is continuing to
weaken from small embedded convective elements into a broader
shield of moderate precipitation along the downshear northern edge
coming into far SW California. However, some vorticity stretching
and localized convergent surface to boundary layer convergence
response is starting in earnest along the eastern slopes of the
Peninsular Range as a surface low spreads/stretches through in the
Lower Colorado River Valley. Conditionally unstable air supported
by the warm shallow seas of the Gulf of California are drawn
northward as MLCAPEs increase as weak CAA aloft spreads across the
Lower Colorado as well; raising from 500 J/kg toward 750-1000 J/kg
by 08z across SW AZ. Mid-level vorticity center is also rounding
the eastern side of the deeper cyclone and dPVA is helping to
sharpen an deformation zone/isentropic boundary from the center of
Rachel through the Inland Empire toward southern Nevada. Deep
layer convergence from the Southeast will further help to expand
the convective cluster currently over northern Baja California
through the Inland Empire. Total moisture has also increased
toward 1.75" though CIRA LVT in the 850-700mb layer ranges from
150-200 kg/m/s starting to enter far SE CA/SW AZ. As such rates
of 1-1.5"/hr are becoming increasingly possible especially given
any aid from upslope along the eastern portions of the Peninsular
Ranges. As such localized totals of 1.5-2.5" is becoming probable
though an isolated 3" total is possible and likely to induce
localized flash flooding given 3-6hr FFG values are generally
2-2.25".

Further downstream, as height-falls continue from SW to NE and the
deformation zone/FGEN surface begins to sharpen through S NV;
scattered narrow thunderstorms will develop but further proximity
from the low, cell motions will be more south to north or SSE to
NNW across E Riverside/San Bernadino and into W AZ. Stronger
instability and increasing wind speeds upstream will help foster
potential for back-building and therefore short periods of
repeating/training may allow for some localized .5-1" totals
eventually into S NV. This may even intersect urban Las
Vegas/Henderson and which would be particularly concerning but
overall confidence in a specific cell or two to cross the urban
center is still hard to lock down given widely scattered to
scattered expected coverage over the next 4-6hrs or so.

A more isolated nature with effective warm sector weakly rotating
cells may also manifest over the Low deserts, perhaps even Sun
Valley of westernn and south-central AZ, eventually toward the
western Mogollon Rim areas of Yavapai and Mohave counties. While
more isolated, the stronger updraft rotations may also result in
broader updraft/downdrafts to increase residency time (along with
reduced forward speed from cell rotation). Isolated spots may
result in localized flash flooding conditions across this area as
well.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4ZvhqdG4-E8j_xMJInaa0zgNYjbFqe6Ypb8bH1WS5NS9Ku_9wm-RdyB-HcD-ultwQ0AHR1OUTdfK7aYPnQsabLqz7Ck$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...SGX...TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 37101508 36981411 36311257 34971184 33651160
32261168 31591214 32131379 32201419 32461505
32481611 32451707 32981745 33801750 35241704
36441630
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Oct 11 09:08:58 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 110908
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-SCZ000-111500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1477
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
507 AM EDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Areas affected...Blue Ridge of Virginia, North Carolina and
northern South Carolina...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 110910Z - 111500Z

SUMMARY...Prolonged solid moisture flux into terrain with
occasional localized south to north moving convective elements
enhancing rates to 1"+/hr to add additional 1-2" with localized 3"
spots along Blue Ridge. Flooding likely to continue and expand in
coverage northward with time.

DISCUSSION...Impressive GOES-E WV suite shows shortwave along
eastern side has rotated north to recenter the deeper mid-level
cyclone over central KY. This is lifting the center of Isaias
northward into the Cumberland Plateau while also advancing the
cold front out of GA into the Upstate of SC. Stationary front
remains near the SC/NC border and is supporting active strong
convection though the Gulf Stream. The combination is helping to
maintain a solid low to mid-level gradient with cool conveyor belt
still fluxing enhanced moisture north of the front westward into
the terrain. CIRA LVT values are weakening slightly but remain
above 150 kg/m/s across central VA given .75-.8" advected on
30-40kts centered around 925mb. Aloft, the warm conveyor belt is
broadening and shifting axis toward the Gulf Stream and 850-500
LPW layers have seen a slow decrease; still 35-45kts of veering
southwest to southerly flow is starting to intersect the terrain a
bit more obliquely than earlier this morning and LVT values are
more around 100-150 kg and narrowing toward the western branch of
the WCB, just in advance of the cold front. As such, orographic
ascent will support a third to half inch per hour, allowing for a
broad area of 1-2" across the eastern slopes of the central
Appalachians as the triple point lifts northeastward.

Instability wedge remains about 500-1000 J/kg across SC, but is
narrowing as well given limited northward surge of the effective
warm front; convergence ahead of the front is still spurring
convective development but it remains more scattered and less
vigorous, continuous as before. Still given ample moisture, rates
of 1-1.25"/hr remain possible across Upstate SC into the Foothills
of W NC and far SW VA. Spots of additional 2-3" are possible but
more likely to be isolated to widely scattered in nature. Given
FFG values across far Upstate SC and W NC (less than .75" for all
hours) are significantly compromised, even the remaining showers
are likely to maintain flash flooding/broader riverine flooding
this morning. As the TROWAL corridor shifts eastward intersecting
into SW VA, FFG values have reduced to less than 1" for most hours
as well and exceedance is probable. However, further north into
central western VA, overall totals remain below 2" for the storm
and additional 1-3" would bring some spots closer to FFG values
but potential are less likely than further southwestward along the
Blue Ridge Range.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_N9-tsPRsGzMMHrbvErWhojc7Psq1XEQraeDToVubpXxQHDm3tBfDr8B3C6C_oMNNfTXyZqCEWcW5t0buGC0SFE4fi4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...LWX...RAH...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39007830 38767815 38127848 37027946 35778017
34768167 35028243 35458258 36228168 36778112
37058078 37777996 38467915 38827883
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Oct 11 11:14:34 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 111114
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-111700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1478
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
713 AM EDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Areas affected...Southwest U.S.

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 111113Z - 111700Z

SUMMARY...Post.T.C Rachel continues to rapidly lift northeastward
and inland across southeast CA, with its moisture and related
heavy rainfall continuing to impact the broader Southwest U.S.
Additional areas of flash flooding are expected going through the
morning hours, with locally significant impacts possible.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-W IR satellite imagery, surface
observations and radar data shows the low center associated with
Post-T.C. Rachel advancing quickly to the northeast across
southeast CA. Heavy rainfall associated with an expanding
mid-level deformation zone and frontogenesis axis is seen lifting
quickly across southeast CA up through southern NV and into
southwest UT.

Some discrete areas of convection are noted south and east of the
low center impacting adjacent areas of southern CA up through far
southern NV and across central to northwest AZ. A nose of MUCAPE
values reaching 500 to 1000 J/kg is aligned with the deeper layer
southerly flow around thw eastern flank of Rachel. This coupled
with very strong 850/700 mb moisture flux and orographic ascent
over areas of higher terrain will encourage additional areas of
convection going through the morning hours. In fact, the latest
RAP analysis shows mean layer winds between 850/700mb on the order
of 50 to 60 kts impacting central and western AZ and far southeast
CA which is nosing toward southern NV and southwest UT.

Rainfall rates will be capable of reaching up to 1.5 inches/hour
with the stronger convective cells. However, the rapid motion of
Rachel off to the northeast over the next several hours will at
least locally mitigate the heavy rainfall threat to an extent.
Regardless, the 06Z HREF/REFS consensus would suggest an
additional 1 to 3 inches of rain near the path of Rachel, with
potential for isolated max totals near 5 inches given the very
strong moisture transport and orographic forcing/upslope flow into
the terrain.

Given the rainfall rates and totals expected over the next several
hours. Additional areas of flash flooding are expected, and the
more sensitive burn scar locations, slot canyon areas, and
normally dry washes will be susceptible to impacts which may
locally be significant.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5ijys4KtTNzkk_2YV9VZ56a5vhkN_2P2lHrKtHeliS1kb81f_N-yzaZ6qZdcBQgc8Xi_BY7cxSiiZYsaPDLRm76jqIQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...GJT...LKN...LOX...PSR...SGX...SLC...TWC...
VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39441346 39151187 38341099 37461074 35721068
33860981 33021023 32851112 33591311 33821438
33381562 32521633 32671739 33921798 35461725
37571660 39221509
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Oct 11 16:12:24 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 111611
FFGMPD
PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-112210-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1479
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1210 PM EDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Areas affected...South-Central to Southeast OH...Northeast
KY...Central and Western WV...Southwest PA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 111610Z - 112210Z

SUMMARY...Some increase in shower and thunderstorm activity is
expected going through the afternoon hours. Locally high rainfall
rates, slow cell-motions and wet antecedent conditions will likely
support some areas of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E visible satellite imagery shows
some partial clearing skies and thus an uptick in solar insolation
across areas of central and western WV and southeast OH. The upper
low associated with Post-T.C. Isaias continues to advance off to
the east across portions of the Upper OH and TN Valley region and
is expected to be moving into the central Appalachians by later
this afternoon.

This deep layer cyclonic energy will foster some modest steepening
of mid-level lapse rates over the next few hours which coupled
with an uptick in boundary layer instability should help foster an
increase in shower and thunderstorm activity. MUCAPE values are
already locally around 500 J/kg, and some increase in this
magnitude can be expected through mid to late afternoon. In
addition to greater coverage of convection, the increase in
instability coupled with local orographics should an increase in
rainfall rates.

The latest 12Z HREF/REFS guidance suggests some rainfall rates of
1 to 2 inches/hour are likely with the stronger convective cells.
The cell-motions are likely to be rather slow, and with the aid of
orographics over the higher terrain of the central Appalachians,
some pockets of 2 to 3+ inch rainfall totals will be possible by
late this afternoon.

Antecedent soil conditions are quite sensitive with low FFGs and
relatively elevated streamflows from earlier rainfall. The
additional rainfall going through this afternoon will have a
stronger convective footprint that will encourage more substantial
runoff concerns at least locally. The highest HREF/REFS
probabilities of seeing FFG exceedance are over central and
western WV, but with the sensitivities more regionally that are in
place, a relatively broader concern for areas of flash flooding is
expected going through this afternoon.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7jD4n5aK7W6eCd9FuWNYNNcT0dA30e-4ZSi-qyYGl0VAcplJ3J21iDpc5BHceCesYAipWc5tjnqZn2K1urYZ6wUgw3c$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...ILN...JKL...LMK...PBZ...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40698034 40577930 39707931 38567981 37858056
37498134 37268261 37478364 38108427 38798420
39208378 39998165
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Oct 11 17:01:24 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 111700
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-112300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1480
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1259 PM EDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Areas affected...Southern UT...Northern AZ...Southeast
CA...Southern NV

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 111700Z - 112300Z

SUMMARY...Post-T.C. Rachel and an amplifying longwave trough over
the West Coast will direct exceptional amounts of moisture over
the interior Southwest today. Additional flash flooding is likely
with thunderstorms capable of producing between 1-2"/hr rainfall
rates. Locally significant and life-threatening flash flooding is
possible.

DISCUSSION...GOES satellite is telling quite an active story this
morning with Rachel's moisture now fully merged with a robust
upper-level trough in the West. 12Z soundings from a pair of
Southwest sites (Las Vegas, San Diego) all showed highly saturated
atmospheric profiles with PWs that were above the 99.5
climatological percentile. Visible satellite showed solid surface
based heating getting underway in southern AZ and even in portions
of north-central AZ, where instability will gradually increase
this morning. RAP mesoanalysis shows >400 J/kg of SBCAPE has
already started to develop over much of AZ. Strong southerly flow
over AZ and into southern UT is also aiding in upslope enhanced
rainfall rates, which per MRMS 15-minute rainfall rates, suggest
just under 1"/hr rainfall rates have occurred south and east of
Flagstaff.

As instability increases, so too will the rainfall rates. The
confidence in increasing rainfall rates is helped by a highly
anomalous vapor moisture transport aloft. Both ECMWF and NAEFS
SATs show IVTs approaching 750 kg/m/s, which is surpassing the
maximum observed IVTs in the CFSR database (1979-2009). This is
largely due to SWrly 850-700mb wind that are above the 99th
climatological percentile, significantly influencing both the
moisture transport and upslope enhancement.

Combined with soils that are becoming overly saturated with each
passing heavy shower and thunderstorm, the setup is there for more
areas of flash flooding today. The latest 12Z HREF probabilities
show a concerning signal for 35-45% odds for 6-hr QPF > 100yr ARIs
around Zion Nat'l Park between 18-00Z this afternoon. The 15Z WoFS
show thunderstorms capable of producing 0.1-0.2"/5-minute rainfall
rates, indicating the potential for hourly rates as high as 2"/hr
south and west of the Mogollon Rim and on to the Lower CO Valley.
These parameters and signals all conclude that additional areas of
flash flooding are likely today, and both significant and
life-threatening flooding is possible.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5bOh9BKb3rrkhPh6DSRq9Zla4riEhhpBStEniW1s1poHjulsQglym5vMOKp8w7E65BqSM-FqiuNfJHAq0teg-xmqb0M$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...GJT...PSR...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38501167 38421023 38260955 37740918 36360961
35030935 34380997 34041067 34021111 33941167
33801236 33641322 33271382 33261433 33411464
33801498 34201542 34621568 35011609 35651605
36781584 37621537 38281429 38411304
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Oct 11 17:56:42 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 111756
FFGMPD
WYZ000-UTZ000-IDZ000-NVZ000-112355-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1481
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
155 PM EDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Areas affected...Intermountain West

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 111755Z - 112355Z

SUMMARY...Heavy rainfall in association with Post-T.C. Rachel will
continue to lift north up across portions of the Intermountain
West, including areas of eastern NV, central/northern UT, and into
southeast ID. Persistent areas of heavy rain may result in some
flooding concerns this afternoon including a localized burn scar
flash flood threat.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-W satellite imagery along with OSPO
ALPW data shows a deep plume of tropical moisture in association
with Post-T.C. Rachel continuing to rapidly advance well inland
across portions of the Intermountain West. A well-defined frontal
zone across the Great Basin will be advancing gradually east and
continuing to interact with this moisture axis and the elongating
low and mid-level vort energy from Rachel.

The combination of this moisture with convergence along the front,
along with strong orographics/upslope southerly flow in the
850/700 mb layer across the region will continue to foster areas
of heavy rainfall with some potential for embedded convective
elements. Some MUCAPE values reaching 500+ J/kg are nosing up
across southern and central UT, and this nose of modest
instability may tend to advance farther north into northern UT
this afternoon to facilitate the convective threat. GOES-W visible
satellite images due to show areas of partial clearing across
central and western UT, and the increase in solar insolation
should favor an uptick in boundary layer instability.

Enhanced 850/700mb moisture flux and the uptick in instability may
favor some rainfall rates with any convective elements reaching as
high as 1 inch/hour. The ejecting remnant energy of Rachel with
the orographics will tend to support these higher rates also being
a bit more focused over areas of higher terrain.

Additional rainfall amounts through this afternoon of up to 2
inches will be possible, and especially where any heavier rainfall
rates with convection materialize. These additional rains may
cause some areas of flooding, with there being a localized burn
scar flash flood threat.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8HM6JPcYgwcSv0bG7HzzmP7tLrgultsMs_FMsjA0erqjNvbMs4kqxgF4S6uy9ELN3I_4g_uBb8X8t62mSesuOI950NQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LKN...PIH...RIW...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...PTR...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43631200 43551111 42511082 40801093 39671122
38521203 38471312 38501417 39501454 40781420
41881373 42991300
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Oct 11 22:45:54 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 112245
FFGMPD
NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-120430-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1482
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
643 PM EDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Areas affected...Ohio Valley...Central Appalachians...Mid-Atlantic

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 112245Z - 120430Z

SUMMARY...A strengthening area of low pressure in central Virginia
is likely to produce a pivoting axis of heavy showers and
thunderstorms over soils that received 1.5-3" of rainfall today.
With rainfall rates between 1-2"/hr possible, and more urban
communities containing more hydrophobic surfaces at-risk, flash
flooding will be possible this evening.

DISCUSSION...21Z surface analysis shows a surface low over
southern WV weakening at the same time surface pressures are
lowering in the Mid-Atlantic. The 850mb low over central WV
continues its slow progression east with with elevated moisture
and theta-e levels starting to decrease as the best lift and
moisture moves east of the Appalachians. Still, its slow
progression is resulting in storm storms producing localized
rainfall rates of 1"/hr over the flashy portions of western WV.
Farther east, a warm front is slowly lifting north and west over
the DelMarVa, but is unlikely to make it west of the I-95 corridor
between DC and Baltimore.

Over the next few hours, as the surface low strengthens in central
VA, the surface-925mb flow will intersect the warm front and its
vapor transport will revolve around the 925mb low's northern and
western flank. This setup not only leads to some additional
upslope enhancement into the central Appalachians (particuarly the
Blue Ridge), but also causes surface-925mb FGEN over the I-95
corridor. 21Z RAP shows >1.5" PWs pivoting over northern VA,
northeast MD, and into the Delaware Valley at the same time that
as much as 500 J/kg of MUCAPE becomes available. Most RAP model
soundings on the 21Z HRRR show warm cloud layers between
10,000-12,000ft deep, and low-mid level RH values averaging close
to 90%.

The low pressure system exit off the coast later tonight, and the
window for slower moving storms may be a few hours at most. That
said, FFGs have dipped substantially over western and northern VA,
central MD, and even as far north and east as southeast PA with
some 1-hr FFGs under 1". University of Maryland mesonet sites show
between 2-3" of rain have fallen since midnight in central MD, and
when factoring in these storms occurring near a more urbanized
corridor from northern VA to southeast PA, there is some concern
that 1-2"/hr rainfall rates could result in localized flash
flooding this evening.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_s35M4b3Y6BufG4aDbpR0dkJlu9s9nBr-Ifv0WDcnnRh1G37poB1bP8JtBGpx7rKmyPLxqmU5OPmp0cwPeETkPNeDx0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...PBZ...PHI...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40187596 40167499 39637503 38517636 37927713
37347821 37417913 37608043 37968165 38328211
38928219 39528179 39267989 39567818 40077676
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Oct 11 23:33:26 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 112333
FFGMPD
COZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-120430-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1483
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
731 PM EDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Areas affected...Northern AZ...Southern UT...Southeast
NV...Southwest CO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 112330Z - 120430Z

SUMMARY...The interior Southwest will continue to see scattered
thunderstorms capable of producing rainfall rates of 1"/hr atop
increasingly sensitive soils. Additional areas of flash flooding
are likely with locally significant flash flooding possible.

DISCUSSION...The prolonged fetch of anomalous IVTs surpassing 500
kg/m/s and PWs above the 97.5 climatological percentile will
continue into the first half of the evening. Persistent SWrly
700mb winds will continue to favor upslope enhancement along
various mountain ranges (Mogollon Rim, Zion Nat'l Park, San Juan).
CAPE levels are beginning to come down as surface based heating
decreases, but soils remain quite saturated. Southeast NV,
southwest UT, and northern AZ contain 50-75% soil saturation per
FLASH CREST with localized values topping 75%. Latest 22Z HRRR
shows pockets of >1" rainfall totals and the 18Z HREF shows low
chances (20-30%) for 6-hr QPF > 10yr ARIs in southern UT, northern
AZ, and southeast NV. Upslope enhancement may linger a bit longer
over the San Juan Mountains given their placement farther east and
downwind of the longwave trough. Additional flash flooding is
likely this evening as a result of the lingering efficient
rainfall rates and increasingly sensitive soils.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8pKDTdd8bzTR-Rj2eZnPV3-JS_5LwPlYIvz11EkpfXFiw0Vn6bKOoR0dDtuTFuwLrI7n1H1Txacjh-SdJibIYD4HsQs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...GJT...PSR...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39400989 39010901 38770823 38520771 38140723
37350726 37150766 37130892 36910947 36510990
35981035 35111070 34111115 33751153 33701199
33961268 34561354 35241435 36121452 36971430
37631375 38521255 39321069
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Oct 12 11:57:08 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 121156
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-121755-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1484
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
755 AM EDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Areas affected...Western and Northern AZ...Southern UT

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 121155Z - 121755Z

SUMMARY...An increase in showers and some thunderstorm activity
may result in some additional areas of flash flooding going
through the morning hours.

DISCUSSION...Radar and satellite imagery shows a gradual uptick in
the coverage of shower activity across areas of western and
northern AZ in association with an ejecting shortwave trough that
is seen lifting northeastward toward the region ahead of a deeper
layer trough farther to the west.

This energy and proximity of a cold front are working in tandem
with a nose of modest instability to facilitate the convective
development. MUCAPE values are locally near 500 J/kg, and the
latest OSPO ALPW data shows a relatively focused channel of
moisture in the 850/700 mb cloud-bearing layer to promote some
relatively efficient convection for locally heavy rainfall rates.

The latest HRRR guidance and the 06Z HREF suite suggest some
additional expansion of showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms
going through the morning hours as the shortwave energy lifts
across the region. DPVA associated with this along with orographic
ascent over areas of higher terrain will support some localized
enhancement of the convection.

Some spotty 1+ inch/hour rainfall rates will be possible over the
next several hours, and especially across northwest AZ. The latest
hires CAMs suggest some localized swaths of up to 2 inches of rain
being possible where some brief cell-training occurs. Given these
additional rains and the sensitive antecedent conditions on the
ground, some additional areas of flash flooding will be possible.
Some of the slot canyon and burn scar locations will be at
greatest risk for impacts.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8Ew_rw_GpGhRgtJrel0dwD_psUY4sYGA7LfYiHwSKAf8sm1FhbjBdIjj3nI7UESH4_A_dtWKc6-WymIzbIUJGs6J5fs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...GJT...PSR...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38301094 37491009 36041105 34991114 34071112
33481152 33061229 33101322 33411396 34221445
35731443 36761409 37561353 38171254
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Oct 12 19:05:50 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 121905
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-130100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1485
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
304 PM EDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Areas affected...central/southeastern NV, northwestern AZ into
central UT

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 121903Z - 130100Z

SUMMARY...A few areas of flash flooding will be possible through
the late afternoon/early evening across southeastern NV,
central/northwestern AZ into central UT. Peak hourly rainfall of
0.5 to 1.0 inches is expected.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar and visible satellite imagery has
shown a steady increase in the coverage and intensity of showers
across central AZ into southeastern NV/southwestern UT over the
past 2 hours ending at 1830Z. GLM imagery also noted some embedded thunderstorms over southeastern NV at times. This activity was
located ahead of an eastward advancing mid to upper-level trough
axis extending from northwestern NV into southern CA (just west of
the Los Angeles metro). While precipitable water values have
lowered compared to 24 hours ago, they remain anomalous (+1 to +2
standard deviations above the mean) ahead of the upper trough axis
from the lower CO River Valley into northern AZ and much of UT.
Instability is weak however, with modest surface dewpoints in the
mid-40s to mid-50s and areas of cloud cover resulting in less than
500 J/kg MLCAPE area-wide via the 18Z SPC mesoanalysis.

Despite the weak instability, lift associated with the advancing
upper trough axis and the left-exit region of a RAP forecast upper
level jet streak from the CA/MX border into western AZ are
expected to help support the continued development of showers and
thunderstorms through the afternoon and early evening hours. RAP
forecast soundings show that dry air in the upper levels will
limit the vertical extent of any showers/thunderstorms that form
but flow will remain unidirectional from the southwest supporting
repeating and training segments of heavy rainfall. Continued
surface heating should allow for a few pockets of 500+ J/kg MLCAPE
to develop into the afternoon according to recent RAP forecasts.

Peak rainfall of 0.5 to 1.0 inches in an hour (or less than an
hour) are expected where southwest to northeast axes of heavy rain
setup. Flash flooding may result given widespread heavy rainfall
over the past 24-48 hours associated with Post-T.C. Rachel which
has increased soil moisture and stream/river levels. Areas of
flash flooding may result with slot canyons, sensitive burn scars,
small streams and normally dry washes at greatest risk for impacts.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7tK3PofAtOeh9KLuQvdPWKKht-ecVD2VKARptR0Z0WQrRGJHWKXOP0GJmPuTzI5rHVW8l7Q3-1vwkhQSSDoIAu4BXkQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...LKN...PSR...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40091161 39761103 39201069 38131100 36361128
35331106 34641068 34241055 33981065 33801083
33651120 33591165 33741271 34211380 35231489
36041552 37081564 37891526 38791469 39581367
40081256
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Oct 13 17:01:26 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 131701
FFGMPD
LAZ000-TXZ000-132255-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1486
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1259 PM EDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Areas affected...southeastern TX into western LA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 131657Z - 132255Z

SUMMARY...A few slow moving showers/thunderstorms are expected to
impact portions of southeastern TX into western LA through the
afternoon. Slow movement and high rain rates may result in
Isolated flash flooding through 23Z.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite and radar imagery at 1630Z showed
cloud streets over southeastern TX into far western LA and the
early stages of shower development within a highly moist
environment. Precipitable water values were 2.2 to 2.5 inches via
15Z GPS sensor data from southwestern LA into southeastern TX and
16Z SPC mesoanalysis data showed uninhibited MLCAPE of 1000 to
2000+ J/kg across the same area. The showers were forming to the
west of a sharp moisture gradient that extended from the central
Gulf, northward into central LA...the remnants of an old frontal
boundary.

An expanding coverage and intensity of showers/thunderstorms
should be expected into the afternoon along subtle axes of low
level confluence, with some cells exhibiting slow movement. Deeper
layer steering flow was only 5 to 10 kt, oriented from the south
to southwest, of a similar orientation to the low level flow as
noted on VAD wind plots from KLCH and KHGX. 925-850 mb layer winds
of 10-15 kt are forecast to continue through much of the day,
which could support training to stationary cell movement at times.
A lack of shear under a mid to upper level ridge should limit
organization but due to the high moisture environment, hourly
rainfall of 1 to 2 inches will be likely, with localized hourly
rainfall over 2 inches at times. These high rates could result in
isolated flash flooding, with urban areas or other locations of
poor drainage at most risk of impacts. Peak total rainfall through
the evening of 2 to 4 inches is expected, but isolated higher
totals may occur as seen on some of the recent hires guidance from
the 12Z HREF/REFS.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8N3u_kjYwWPAAybzwLvl6Yfv_pSKMKW3IP2e7zX2udmKceOeVDKvbnRZz-15zFfbWkf9pCz5R_JECvOCuXR-qjqL2hQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...LCH...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 32129351 31829280 31379260 30299289 29659306
29629306 29489386 29319430 28789518 28839547
29959588 31159535 31909454
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Oct 13 17:30:52 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 131701
FFGMPD
LAZ000-TXZ000-132255-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1486
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1259 PM EDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Areas affected...southeastern TX into western LA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 131657Z - 132255Z

SUMMARY...A few slow moving showers/thunderstorms are expected to
impact portions of southeastern TX into western LA through the
afternoon. Slow movement and high rain rates may result in
Isolated flash flooding through 23Z.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite and radar imagery at 1630Z showed
cloud streets over southeastern TX into far western LA and the
early stages of shower development within a highly moist
environment. Precipitable water values were 2.2 to 2.5 inches via
15Z GPS sensor data from southwestern LA into southeastern TX and
16Z SPC mesoanalysis data showed uninhibited MLCAPE of 1000 to
2000+ J/kg across the same area. The showers were forming to the
west of a sharp moisture gradient that extended from the central
Gulf, northward into central LA...the remnants of an old frontal
boundary.

An expanding coverage and intensity of showers/thunderstorms
should be expected into the afternoon along subtle axes of low
level confluence, with some cells exhibiting slow movement. Deeper
layer steering flow was only 5 to 10 kt, oriented from the south
to southwest, of a similar orientation to the low level flow as
noted on VAD wind plots from KLCH and KHGX. 925-850 mb layer winds
of 10-15 kt are forecast to continue through much of the day,
which could support training to stationary cell movement at times.
A lack of shear under a mid to upper level ridge should limit
organization but due to the high moisture environment, hourly
rainfall of 1 to 2 inches will be likely, with localized hourly
rainfall over 2 inches at times. These high rates could result in
isolated flash flooding, with urban areas or other locations of
poor drainage at most risk of impacts. Peak total rainfall through
the evening of 2 to 4 inches is expected, but isolated higher
totals may occur as seen on some of the recent hires guidance from
the 12Z HREF/REFS.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6uk3WK0cCWCfrkKyQdCYSVPitDniHMBhRdGZbYwUAMj0uAWwg8o6c-WlQcrPxKakdh6pE2FxRt1OjJXSPmvhnyZz2EM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...LCH...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 32129351 31829280 31379260 30299289 29659306
29629306 29489386 29319430 28789518 28839547
29959588 31159535 31909454
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Oct 13 21:35:50 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 132135
FFGMPD
MOZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-140330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1487
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
534 PM EDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Areas affected...northeastern TX Panhandle, southwestern OK into
KS and northwestern MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 132132Z - 140330Z

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are likely to develop near a
quasi-stationary front and dryline into the evening hours. Areas
of training will coincide with hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches,
leading to 2 to 4+ inch peak rainfall totals through 03Z.

DISCUSSION...21Z observations showed a well-defined
stationary/cold front extending from northern MO into
central/southwestern KS, marked by warm sector surface
temperatures in the low 90s and dewpoints in the upper 60s/lower
70s, while surface temperatures were only in the 50s across
northwestern KS on the cold side of the boundary. A dryline
extended southwestward from the front near Dodge City into the
central TX Panhandle. SPC mesoanalysis data from 21Z showed MLCAPE
of 2000-3000 J/kg east of the dryline and south of the cold front
over KS into northern OK. Radar imagery from 2115Z showed
thunderstorms along and just north of the front over central KS
but additional storms were developing along the KS/OK border, just
east of the triple point and towering cumulus were noted farther
south into the TX Panhandle ahead of the dryline.

Surface convergence will continue to aid in the development of
thunderstorms ahead of the dryline and near the cold/stationary
front through 00Z. Beyond 00Z, RAP model guidance has shown the
low level jet across OK increasing into the 25-35 kt range through
03Z, oriented from south to north into the slowly southward
sagging cold front over KS, while the dryline begins to retreat
westward across the TX/OK panhandles. The coverage of
thunderstorms is expected to become numerous between 00-03Z, with
WSW to ENE steering flow supporting areas of training, with the
greatest training potential in KS following the frontal boundary's
WSW to ENE orientation. Hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches within
training axes will become likely and rainfall accumulations
through 03Z of 2 to 4 inches (locally higher possible) are
expected. These higher rainfall totals may result in areas of
flash flooding with the threat continuing beyond this MPD's
expiration into the night.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-5LlX_QJOwzGBLRPgGFvzL4buevB3gRrebvHQ94tUP4UGFppYXCgXOLSrzZQaUOsyMPkXBPdu04lJKOum7tCykVefdA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...DDC...EAX...ICT...OAX...OUN...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40149462 40129361 39679308 39019346 38409472
37789609 36799770 35729880 35289990 35410085
35960106 37110054 37780003 38349905 38969787
39909594
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Oct 14 02:47:22 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 140247
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-140800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1488
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1045 PM EDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Areas affected...Western Oklahoma...Northwest Texas...Eastern TX
Panhandle...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 140245Z - 140800Z

SUMMARY...Favorable environment for upstream back-building and
repeating through areas of recent heavy rainfall. High FFG
suggests any flooding will be localized and widely scattered with
best potential in urban centers.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E 10.3um EIR loop shows rapid warming of
convective cluster across SW portions of OK associated with a
solid bowing segment that is becoming more forward propagating
(eastward). While this is diminishing with rates reducing below
1"/hr, there remains a broad area of remaining conditionally
unstable air along the southern upwind edge. VWP and RAP analysis
also denote an increase in LLJ speed with tightening confluent
850-700mb flow that is expected to veer throughout the overnight
period. This will continue to maintain a solid deep layer
convergent flow in proximity to tap the 1000-1500 J/kg of
remaining MLCAPE. Overall total moisture aided by the convergence
will remain over 2", though most moisture is in the lowest layers
(sfc Tds in the low 70s and CIRA LPW maximized near the SW OK/TX
border). This may support rates up to 2"/hr especially if the
updrafts can broaden with time.

RADAR already shows a few scattered cells developing over the
eastern portion of the Cap Rock toward NW Texas with a few TCu
further upstream toward an isolated cell nearing Dawson county.
Given potent upstream inflow/convergence, backbuilding is expected
to maintain along the upwind edge as such, stripes of 2-3" totals
could be possible. This alone would not likely be an issue, but
with precursory 1-3" totals (mainly across Donaly to Washita
county) overall totals toward 3-4" totals may help to result in a
few possible localized but widely scattered incidents of flash
flooding through the overnight period, especially if cells track
through urban centers.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!69MXTUi28nAmf4yw8I6WNgn9N1TL4uN89gWr5Skn-PXvTSKHC66i4rz_KsRTl6mtQthbZmGTxMZ0b0okIaptpECjmdo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...LUB...OUN...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36679843 36349781 35749751 34819812 34029921
33610004 33730101 34410119 35300062 36489956
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Oct 14 03:26:20 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 140326
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-140900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1489
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1125 PM EDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Areas affected...South-central & Southeast KS...Central & Southern
MO...Far Southwest IL...Far Northern Oklahoma...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 140325Z - 140900Z

SUMMARY...Strong line of thunderstorms with some
repeating/training elements (mainly upstream) that could result in
spots of 2-4" resulting in localized incident or two of flash
flooding overnight.

DISCUSSION...03z surface analysis shows well defined
cold/stationary front extending from western IL across N MO toward
a weak surface wave east of KC before continuing SW toward the
main 1010 surface low near Medicine Lodge, KS. Aloft, the cold
front resides along the southeastern edge of a strong 110kt jet
streak providing solid divergence aloft along its length with
broadening diffluence along the downstream edge in MO into IL.
Along with the divergence aloft, the mean steering flow is
generally parallel to the frontal zone/divergence pattern to allow
for at least short-term internal repeating/training elements.
Further downstream along the line, 500-1000mb thickness pattern
and a bit more modest dry air aloft combine to support slightly
stronger cold pools and indirect circulation resulting in
increased southeastward propagation off the frontal zone.

Instability is fairly solid across the warm sector of southern KS
into S MO with wedge of slowly stabilizing MLCAPEs from 2000 J/kg
further upstream toward 1250 J/kg across NE MO/W IL. This will
continue to support stronger back-sheared updrafts and forward
motions especially further northeastward along the line. Narrow
ribbon of 2" total PWats pooled along the front expand toward
1.75" range across the warm sector and with solid 20-25kt
confluent inflow and instability to feed off, cores will still
support 1.75-2"/hr rates resulting in spots of 1.5-2.5" totals in
30-90 minutes. Further southwest, toward the surface low,
effective fulcrum of the convective line, strong, more orthogonal
boundary layer to 850mb LLJ will support upstream redevelopment
but also slow southward propagation to allow for increased
residency time. CIRA LVT values are steadily increasing with LLJ
increasing to 40kts, supporting flux values of 150-175 kg/m/s.
As such, rates of 2"+/hr rates for 1-2+ hours should result in a
broader stripe of 2-4" totals with an isolated higher amount not
withstanding.

Hydrologically, lowest FFGs reside along the cold front with a few
spots of 1.5"/hr near Comanche/Harper county KS, as well as
Cooper/Morgan county MO but are generally 2"/hr or even 2.5"
across portions of the drier Ozark Plateau; with similar 2.5-3" in
3hrs becoming 4"/3hrs further south. As such, potential for
exceedance is greatest in the near term, reducing with time but
there remains sufficient potential for localized exceedance
overnight, especially across south-central KS and as such,
localized incidents of flash flooding continue to be possible.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_2QhpO-iYn__o2XVi_ca4oq030ZIIhOKW6DgL3U7C6tcMdxqJ5vL1sEbgu6MY83LUx9GQLtFnMEYExdgMpuFZfZUUK4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...EAX...ICT...LSX...OUN...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39869135 38959008 38299003 37479111 37099248
36709445 36349734 36709924 37289907 38259633
39419390
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Oct 14 03:52:46 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 140352
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-140930-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1490
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1151 PM EDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Areas affected...Western Texas Panhandle...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 140350Z - 140930Z

SUMMARY...Potential for continued training/redevelopment of
thunderstorms capable of 1.5-2"/hr and localized 2-3" totals.
Given hard grounds/high rates, high run-off is likely to result in
scattered incident(s) of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...Recent hours of surface observations and 3.9um SWIR
animation shows dry line that has been setup through the Pecos
River Valley has increased in westwestward retrograding through
the Stockon Plateau into the Big Bend. IR loop had shown
increased mid-level clouds in narrowing confluent low to mid-level south-southwesterly return flow out of north-central Mexico. A
subtle shortwave has lifted north into the furhtest southward
extention of the 90kt upper-level jet providing a combination of
weak dPVA and divergence aloft to further support the surface to
boundary layer strengthening convergence along the dry line. Low
level flow is very moist given Tds of mid to upper-60s are
intersecting with the return sub-tropical moisture at .5" and .4"
from 850-700 and 700-500mb layers, supporting enhanced 1.75" total
Pwats. The low level higher theta-E return and modest lapse
rates aloft, has supported MLCAPEs over 1500 J/kg and as a result
scattered Cu has recently blossomed to stronger cores across the
Big Bend of TX with overshooting tops cooling below -75C nearing
-80C.

Given the convergence, rates of 1.5-2"/hr and while there is some
modest northward steering flow the orienation of the line to the
mean flow may support short-term repeating and spots of 2-3" are
becoming more likely. Hi-Res CAMs and forcing still upstream, the
potential for additional development along the dryline is possible
and increasing toward the north through the overnight period.
Given the high moisture/rates and hard ground conditions, rapid
runoff is expected and localized flash flooding is considered
likely.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6nFQYofNBcNKCfp4vEs3uTSJLsfK0969QWJeQScMIQnOFfgdbHbaEuy7lDXIFYFMfeBkTj5TrIOuj3ZOWPuvT9gBqt8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32170296 31950227 31390211 30580229 29050292
29020360 29300406 29820463 30940415 31830355
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Oct 14 07:24:46 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 140724
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-141300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1491
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
323 AM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Areas affected...Eastern Texas Panhandle...Western to
North-central Oklahoma...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 140730Z - 141300Z

SUMMARY...Continuing isolated flash flooding risk through late
overnight period into early morning. Some back-building cells may
repeat through already flooded areas. Additional 1-3" are
possible.

DISCUSSION...Current Regional RADAR and GOES-E EIR loop shows a
weakening linear complex with subtle, storm scale outflow/bowing
segements crossing Kiowa to Logan counties in west-central to
central OK. A few isolated tops remain colder than -70C and
indicate rates up to 2", however, the overall trends are slowly
ticking downward as cluster is moving into more stable environment
across northeast OK where even MUCAPEs reduce below 500 J/kg.

However, 07z surface analysis and RADAR shows broader outflow
boundary from elevated convective complex remains favorably
oriented along the upstream edge over SW OK into the eastern
portions of the northern Texas Panhandle. VWP continue to depict
30-35kts of confluent 850mb flow in the vicinity of 100W though
remains fairly orthogonal from the south. An axis of
enhnaced/untapped unstable air remains across the Cap Rock into W
OK, where MUCAPEs remain 1000-1500 J/kg. CIRA LPW shows 850-700
and 700-500mb moisture axis aligned over this area as well, and
with Tds still in the upper 60s, overall total available moisture
remains about 2". An upstream shortwave at the southeastern edge
of the upper-level right entrance region to the jet will continue
to advance northward, maintaining the slowly veering LLJ and
provide further isentropic ascent/convergence over the outflow for
additional development. A few cells are occuring across Donley
into Wheeler county, but given satellite trends and upstream
convective activity approaching from the SW associated with the
mid to upper-level forcing, will expect further development to
occur.

Deep layer flow remains fairly steady to further support WSW to
ENE repeating/training and unfortunately is expected to be very
close to the area already affected/flooding from Collinsworth to N
Caddo county. With slightly reduced instability, convection may
still be vigorous enough to support 1.5"/hr rates and so with
potential repeating an addtional 1-3" totals are possible and are
possible to maintain ongoing flooding conditions or expand them
areally. Still, there is still sufficient uncertainty in latitude
that additional flash flooding is considered possible.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-x5JmKXB5x2NpQXEZqBxnRVLPG-S_wO8fNFKpPiOmGafdAUTJB5GF04h0_VF__50kqB-MqY34Lgw9SA8ctBL5lDkYaY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...OUN...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36679592 36309543 35679562 35339618 34979756
34789977 34800084 35050138 35720104 36289913
36669705
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Oct 14 08:56:58 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 140856
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-141300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1492
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
455 AM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Areas affected...Western Texas Panhandle to Cap Rock...Southeast
New Mexico...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 140855Z - 141300Z

SUMMARY...Increasing convection along retreating dryline may
repeat for some time resulting in 1.5"/hr rates and localized 2-3"
totals. Isolated flash flooding remains possible.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV and CIRA LPW animation continue to show
narrow enhanced deep layer moisture plume extending from
sub-tropics of the western Mexican coast through E Chihuahua/W
Coahuila into Big Bend Region before connecting up to the frontal
boundary across the northern TX Panhandle. A subtle shortwave
feature within the narrow plume exists at the upstream edge of a
high-cirrus streak across E NM generally under the central canopy
of the weakening convective cluster. A few remaining cells along
the upwind edge still are tapping the remainin instability through
the Rio Grande Valley and will support continued localized flash
flooding risk as it weakens lifting northward into the more
stabilized air across the Davis Mountains and Stockton Plateau.

Downstream of the shortwave, the dryline has retrograded well into
SE NM from near Carlsbad to east of Clovis toward Amarillo.
Slightly backed surface flow, perhaps enhanced by older convective
outflow has increased boundary layer convergence along the dryline
and remaining unstable air mass along the dryline northward toward
the surface low. RADAR and GOES-E IR show convective initiation
along the boundary and given 1000-1250 J/kg of MLCAPE and 1.75-2"
of total PWats and 25-30kts of 850mb flux, cells will be capable
of quick 1.5" (occasionally/locally higher) rates. Northeastward
propagation may limit overall totals, but orientation of other
downstream cells could still allow a short window of
repeating/training across the northern Permian Basin into the Cap
Rock region. As such, a streak or two of 2-3" totals are
possible, resulting in isolated to widely scattered exceedance of
FFG values both at 1 (1.5-2") and 3hrs (1.75-2.5") and possible
incident or two of low-end flash flooding risk.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8mf4pM5ctIsyWJMwf5JQS4A5q-H8DxFbdDNVLmBQsDNf0bqb5oXwssMt5gm5JOQSzaFTQtiADxPiSy9TQaOZ1Bw6shk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 34670070 34190037 33800060 32070164 30520289
30210405 31520421 33050334 33980280 34650199
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Oct 14 13:45:38 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 141345
FFGMPD
OKZ000-141900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1493
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
944 AM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Areas affected...Oklahoma

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 141343Z - 141900Z

SUMMARY...A few areas of flash flooding are likely to continue
over the next couple of hours over OK, but a lull in precipitation
intensity is expected toward 18Z. Additional rainfall totals of
2-4 inches through 19Z should be anticipated, including some
overlap with portions of western OK which received heavy rain over
the past 13 hours.

DISCUSSION...13Z surface observations and radar imagery showed an
outflow boundary extended roughly east to west across
south-central OK, with ongoing thunderstorms from western to
northeastern OK. Back to the west, an MCV was noted over the
southern TX Panhandle, tracking toward the northeast, providing
some local enhancement to the low level flow just to its east.
Infrared satellite imagery showed that cloud tops continued to
cool over portions of west-central OK as low level flow of 20-25
kt continues to overrun the outflow boundary and lingering
instability of 500-1500 J/kg remains available to sustain higher
rainfall rates. MUCAPE was locally higher as seen on the 12Z OUN
sounding with ~1850 J/kg along with 2.2 inches of precipitable
water containing mid to upper level moisture contributions
streaming north from Hurricane Simon in the eastern Pacific.

Short term forecasts from the RAP support southerly 925-850 mb
winds gradually weakening through 18Z by about 10 to 15 kt which
should help diminish the coverage and intensity of ongoing
thunderstorms across the region over the next 3-5 hours. However,
showers and thunderstorms will continue to linger across the
region into the early afternoon and mean southwesterly steering
flow will support areas of training with hourly rainfall of 1-2
inches at times. Additional rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches are
expected through 19Z with some overlap expected with a stripe of
4-8 inches of rain that fell across western OK since ~00Z.
Therefore, areas of flash flooding appear likely to continue in
the short term, though a relative lull is forecast later this
morning.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5aDpc8X1RA1R3Gb9SXPpk5qLt29yAjKXFO5iUaoGCACKiIyuIne4tc9XsEcBz3tkwxhJ0dqOcgYFEj2IiRNKwtUdPso$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36629747 36559629 36329576 35799525 34869544
34379651 34399870 34629959 34969983 35439985
35929969 36279924 36569826
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Oct 14 18:48:20 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 141847
FFGMPD
PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-150030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1494
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
246 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Areas affected...upper OH Valley into the central Appalachians

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 141845Z - 150030Z

SUMMARY...Areas of flash flooding will be possible across the
upper OH Valley into the central Appalachians through 01Z. Hourly
rainfall of 1 to 2 inches is expected with 6-hr totals of 2 to 4
inches possible (isolated higher rates/totals).

DISCUSSION...18Z visible satellite and radar imagery showed an MCV
over southeastern IN (between I-70 and I-74), tracking toward the
east, preceded by an axis of thunderstorms stretching from the
southern IN/OH border into northern KY. Farther east, a narrow
west-east axis of showers and thunderstorms was located along I-70
in eastern OH along a pre-frontal convergence axis. The
environment downstream of the eastward advancing MCV showed mostly
clear skies with a few pockets of 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE via the 18Z
SPC mesoanalysis. Precipitable water values were high along the
OH/WV border with 1.6 to 1.7 inches, but increased to near 2
inches over southeastern IN, near the MCV.

Continued heating and moisture advection within the moist
environment downstream of the MCV should allow for further
increases in instability with 500 to 1000+ J/kg becoming more
widespread across the upper OH Valley by 21Z via the 17Z RAP.
Steering flow is generally unidirectional from the west throughout
the region and while 850-300 mb layer winds were a progressive
30-40 kt, there will be some potential for cells to train with any
west-east oriented development that occurs ahead of the MCV. There
will also be some potential for west-east training over portions
of eastern KY along the southwestern flank of the MCV as it tracks
into WV late this afternoon into the early evening. A lack of
higher instability and mostly progressive storm motions are
limiting factors for flash flooding, but any areas of training
that develop will allow for hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches.
These values alone would exceed 1-hr FFG values along the OH River
into much of WV. Any stronger convection that is able to train or
repeat for over an hour could allow for some 2 to 4 inch totals
through 00Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_rCWBjGlJUh_TN-B5X4-NWpmplzzeRclGDVK-Yguq98J8LLLvw3eNAlQpM-p5eP21_VuSW5Rqw55cJYZm-vxsPW2lBg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...CTP...ILN...JKL...LMK...LWX...PBZ...RLX...
RNK...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40388086 40147945 39717925 38787960 37728107
37478291 37418582 37748649 38038652 38498607
39008529 39648427 39978341 40358213
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Oct 14 20:43:54 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 142043
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-150235-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1495
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
442 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Areas affected...Big Bend of TX into southwestern OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 142038Z - 150235Z

SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm coverage from southwestern TX
into southwestern OK should result in a few areas of flash
flooding through the evening hours. Training thunderstorms with
peak hourly rainfall of 2 to 3+ inches is expected.

DISCUSSION...20Z radar imagery showed a few strong to severe
thunderstorms over northwestern TX (just north of an outflow
boundary) and southwestern TX (ahead of a subtle mid-level
vorticity max near the Rio Grande). These storms were located
within a corridor of highly anomalous moisture with low level
contributions from the western Gulf and mid to upper level
contributions from Hurricane Simon in the eastern Pacific. Total
precipitable water values ranged from 1.5 to 2.0 inches (200 to
300 percent of normal via the latest Blended TPW imagery) across
this corridor and MLCAPE was 1000 to 2000+ along and south of the
outflow boundary (via 20Z SPC mesoanalysis data).

There are two main corridors of concern over the next 6 hours. The
first is up north, along and just north of an outflow boundary
that extended from near the Red River at U.S. Hwy 271 to just
south of Lubbock. 850 mb winds of 10-20 kt will support a
overrunning component atop the rain-cooled boundary while a
forecast increase in the 850 mb flow toward 00Z is expected to
coincide with an increase in ascent and thunderstorm coverage
across western portions of TX. Mean southwesterly steering flow
will promote training axes of heavy rain at times with hourly
rainfall peaking above 2 inches at times. While this axis is
expected to remain south of a zone of heavy rain that impacted
western OK earlier this morning, at least a few areas of flash
flooding are expected to result over northwestern TX to just north
of the Red River. However localized heavy rain may still impact
the compromised areas of western OK into early tonight.

The other area of concern is farther south, where an expanding
region of thunderstorms between Fort Stockton and Odessa will
likely continue to advance north and east over the next few hours
with upstream development highly probable within the anomalous
moisture axis. Additional development is most likely along the
eastern edges of cloud cover present over parts of the Trans Pecos
region, although a few cells along the higher terrain beneath the
present cloud cover will be possible. This activity will track
northeastward with elements of training, aiding by strengthening
right-entrance region divergence in association with a jet max
over eastern NM.

The environment across western TX into southwestern OK will
support hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches with peak values of 2 to
3+ inches possible. Rainfall totals through 03Z of 3 to 5 inches
are expected (at least locally) with isolated higher totals
possible. Areas of flash flooding will be likely through this
evening.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8ep1bNUeREDoo24ruwQtHtNYoJBOSCmobtQSLzlr74r2SmNA8g-kZma4b86F6WVpvi4CgIt8IInCwe85b48-sFgwdB0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...EWX...FWD...LUB...MAF...OUN...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36119820 35709758 34839747 33499847 31440020
29920194 29510254 28920305 28940345 29140392
30040425 30920409 31550362 33160243 34500190
35460059 35889952
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Oct 15 03:17:26 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 150316
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-150914-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1496
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1115 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Areas affected...Central OK...West TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 150314Z - 150914Z

Summary...Training thunderstorms containing peak hourly rainfall
rates exceeding 2 in/hr will continue tonight. Widely scattered to
numerous instances of flash flooding are expected.

Discussion...Radar mosaic this evening depicts an MCS exhibiting a
line echo wave pattern (LEWP), which is moving eastward across
portions of central OK and northern TX. Upwind of the LEWP,
training thunderstorms are expanding in coverage near a stationary
segment of the cold pool over west-central TX. As highlighted in
MPD 1495, this complex is embedded in a favorable environment for
efficient heavy rainfall production, with low level contributions
from the western Gulf and mid-level contributions from Hurricane
Simon in the eastern Pacific. Recent mesoanalysis data suggests
PWs near the complex range from 1.7-2.0", with MUCAPE near 1000
J/kg.

Over the next 6 hours, the main axis of training will focus along
the cold pool as the low-level jet strengthens and Corfidi vectors
align favorably with the low level boundary. Strong thermodynamic
advection will result in PWs exceeding 2" and MUCAPE values in the
2000 J/kg range as the low-level jet strengthens, supporting
hourly rainfall rates exceeding 2"/hr at times in the most intense
cells.

Through 9z, CAM guidance unanimously highlights the potential for
an additional 2-4" in the highlighted area. Owing to the previous
24 hours of heavy rainfall (upwards of 4-10" west of the OKC
metro), this will maintain the threat of widely scattered to
numerous instances of flash flooding. Flash flooding is considered
likely, and considerable to significant flash flooding impacts
remain possible over urban zones or areas inundated from
yesterday's rainfall.

Asherman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8phFl9jXf1VfR1fzhkHfXLapEmjdlMp1Oza4UB1NxHT0JwpQRzjv2fuHhEP4iJqZBKfD1W1cKQ0g4Orrvvv40RMTvB8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...EWX...FWD...ICT...LUB...MAF...OUN...SJT...
TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37139589 35859551 33349841 31030072 29520265
29810375 31290348 33610185 35190014 36519831
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Oct 15 09:21:06 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 150920
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-151519-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1497
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
520 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Areas affected...Southern Plains

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 150919Z - 151519Z

Summary...The potential for scattered flash flooding will persist
into the morning hours as showers and thunderstorms continue to
train along a slow moving outflow boundary and approaching cold
front.

Discussion...Latest analysis this morning depicts a nearly
stationary outflow boundary extending from southeast OK into
north-central TX. Along and north of this boundary, showers and
thunderstorms continue to train along an ENE axis, leading to
swaths of 1-3" of rain over the last six hours according to MRMS.

Over north-central TX, pronounced low-level inflow from a strong
low-level jet has destabilized and moistened the upwind portion of
the boundary. Recent objective analysis and RAP trends suggests a
positive 3 hr MLCAPE and PW change of 200-600 J/kg and 0.2-0.4",
respectively. This trend is corroborated by a rapid cooling of
cloud tops in a thunderstorm cluster entering southwest OK.

As such, the HREF and REFS suggest thunderstorms with max rainfall
rates upwards of 2"/hr will expand in coverage and intensity for
the next 2-3 hours along the cold pool. Some weakening of the the
low-level jet could lead to a brief lull in thunderstorm intensity
this morning, although another round of activity is expected over
the same by 14-15Z with the approach of the cold front from the
west. By then, the HRRR and RRFS suggest additional swaths of 1-3"
of rain is possible in the highlighted area, which could support
additional scattered flash flooding this morning.

Asherman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_V7kGYGebC9_BNfaO9g_ar0-8IejpkEbTiQzWRu9Yjs5UbbjAlqsEDGUr54xnye75NJBc7Kx0E7CwBlMsKqhDoIuOK0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...LUB...MAF...OUN...SJT...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36119561 34989477 33669627 32979814 31960002
30320104 29640212 29770303 30780324 32890180
33860091 35569882
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Oct 15 15:30:54 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 151530
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-152045-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1498
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1129 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Areas affected...western to northwestern TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 151527Z - 152045Z

Summary...A few areas of flash flooding are expected across
northwestern TX over the next 3-5 hours from hourly rainfall of 1
to 2 inches. Additional thunderstorm development is expected
between 18-21Z farther south into the lower Pecos Valley which may
trigger the start of a separate round of flash flooding.

Discussion...Radar imagery from 15Z showed an axis of showers and
thunderstorms that extended from near Midland into southwestern
OK. The highest rain rates have been located over northwestern TX
over the past 1-2 hours with hourly values of 1-2 inches via MRMS.
Overrunning of a long-lived outflow boundary in place over
northwestern TX was occurring with 10-20 kt of southerly low level
flow over western TX and 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE north of the outflow
boundary up to the Red River.

Surface observations from 15Z showed a NE to SW oriented cold
front approaching northwestern TX that connected into a surface
low near Midland. Also near Midland was an MCV, seen on radar
imagery, located about 25 miles SSE of the city, associated with
recent convective development to its north where the cold front
was approaching.

Short term forecasts show the cold front over northwestern TX will
make steady progress toward the southeast through 21Z but the
surface low near Midland will be slower to advance southeastward.
Low level overrunning and enhancement of lift ahead of the
northeastward advancing MCV will likely maintain a flash flood
threat to the north of the outflow boundary across northwestern
TX, overlapping portions of the region that have received heavy
rain over the past 24 hours. Additional rainfall totals of 1-3
inches (locally higher possible) are expected through 21Z for
portions of northwestern TX.

Farther south, as the cold front begins to move through the lower
Pecos Valley to the south of the surface low, additional
thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage in the 18-21Z
time frame containing a general motion toward the northeast. Mean
southwest to northeast steering flow may promote areas of training
and flash flooding that is expected to intensify through the
afternoon. Given a high moisture environment containing
precipitable water values of 1.7 to 2.0 inches, training could
result in hourly rainfall approaching or exceeding 2 inches later
today across portions of southwestern TX.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-z3eitHjMTphcq_pj_Rdpq_Q6FktdZkoVAxG8BXvCbTxHh8VHnWV6E3bUtj1So-Nsc3gRGUEUxTFEn_9kBX82oqhy7Y$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...LUB...MAF...OUN...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 34549858 34289822 33209835 32089915 30999993
29760080 29470106 29700172 29660214 30060221
30940228 31950223 32650188 33530092 34239988
34459920
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Oct 15 16:42:54 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 151642
FFGMPD
VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-152230-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1499
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1241 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Areas affected...eastern KY into WV

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 151640Z - 152230Z

Summary...Isolated flash flooding may occur across eastern KY into
WV through late afternoon from training and hourly rainfall of 1-2
inches. Areal coverage of any higher rain rates/impacts is
expected to remain limited however.

Discussion...A small region of showers was observed on local radar
imagery over eastern KY at 1615Z, tracking toward the east at
about 20 kt. There has been a history of embedded training of
heavy rain within the area of showers containing MRMS-derived
hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches over the eastern third of KY since
12Z. According to 16Z data from the SPC mesoanalysis, eastern KY
contained ~2 inches of precipitable water and MLCAPE of 100-500
J/kg. A quasi-stationary front extended west to east from
north-central KY into southern WV and a weak rain-cooled outflow
boundary was becoming more apparent just south of the recent
rainfall in KY.

There will continue to be an isolated threat for 1-2 inch hourly
rainfall with the area of showers as it tracks into
central/southern WV over the next 1 to 2 hours, but potential for
additional shower/thunderstorm development will occur later this
afternoon into the early evening back to the west. RAP forecast
guidance shows MLCAPE increasing up to 500 J/kg for WV and near
1000 J/kg into eastern KY. In addition, 925-850 mb winds of 15-25
kt are forecast over KY into WV with an overrunning component of
the outflow and frontal boundary which may support a few widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms after 19Z. Mean westerly
steering flow could promote training and hourly rainfall of 1-2
inches within the moist environment. Isolated flash flooding may
result across the sensitive terrain of the Cumberland Plateau into
the central Appalachians.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-MReMPcNaXE35FCdqzP45jmiBVAKRd8PDeak8XFw3idvO8fsHKQ9wXN0BQ20IM7GkpZqMnEREYHSwON4Tn8ZnxCrnDI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...JKL...LMK...LWX...MRX...PBZ...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39328025 39047940 38447928 37907960 37438029
37018207 36778405 37058460 37368468 37728464
38098447 38308409 38488296 38758227 39198118
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Oct 15 21:04:20 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 152104
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-160300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1500
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
503 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Areas affected...southwestern to northern TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 152102Z - 160300Z

Summary...A few areas of flash flooding are expected across
southwestern to northern TX over the next 3-6 hours. Thunderstorm
coverage is likely to expand through 00Z with areas of training
supporting hourly rainfall of 1 to 3 inches.

Discussion...Radar imagery from 2030Z showed a cluster of
thunderstorms bisecting I-20 in the vicinity of Abilene, slowly
tracking toward the east near a frontal wave. Additional slow
moving thunderstorms were noted about 20 to 60 miles east and
northeast of Abilene, located along an outflow boundary that
draped eastward from the frontal wave near Abilene, across
northwestern TX before curving northeastward into southeastern OK.
MRMS-derived hourly rainfall with these thunderstorms has
generally peaked in the 1 to 2 inch range over the past couple of
hours. 20Z SPC mesoanalysis showed a corridor of ~1000 to 1500
J/kg MLCAPE that extended near and south of the outflow boundary
over northern TX to the Rio Grande near Del Rio, out ahead of a
cold front over western and southwestern TX.

The region of TX between the Rio Grande and lower Pecos Valley to
the Red River between Vernon and Denison remained located within
an anomalous stream of moisture containing PW values of 1.5 to 2.0
inches via recent GPS observations. Visible satellite imagery
revealed a number of smaller scale circulations embedded within
this moisture axis over northern Mexico, advancing northward, with
one near the Rio Grande just south of Val Verde County.

Short term forecasts show the cold front continuing to advance
southeastward through this evening, catching up with and
overtaking the outflow boundary in place over northern TX through
03Z. As peak heating combines with increasing low level
convergence in association with the approaching cold front and
subtle embedded mid-level impulses, numerous thunderstorms are
expected to develop through the evening hours from the Rio Grande,
northward. Between 00-03Z an axis of thunderstorms is expected to
be in place from the Rio Grande to northern TX, but waning
instability across northern locations will favor higher rainfall
rate potential across southern locations after 00Z. Within axes of
SW to NE training, hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches will be likely,
but peak hourly rainfall of 2 to 3+ may also occur. These higher
rainfall rates are likely to result in at least a few areas of
flash flooding into the early overnight hours.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5-HceU9EJVkgxgGA3rkajkqgpm3rlhO4B84NR5g_5ntRQdWslpHG5N4RFUevXQRqnxfzmiAysbOGTDLrosNwGfqvwdY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...LUB...MAF...OUN...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 34029915 33979864 33799804 33749748 33889666
33879649 33709646 33289658 32529735 31339860
30309943 29580037 29320101 29410117 29510144
29620167 29660221 30110227 31170194 32510048
33429997 33899946
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Oct 16 03:13:04 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 160312
FFGMPD
TXZ000-160900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1501
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1111 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Areas affected...South-Central Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 160310Z - 160900Z

Summary...A swath of heavy rainfall with embedded thunderstorms
may lead to some instances of flooding through the early morning
hours from the central Rio Grande to north-central Texas. The
heaviest rainfall and flash flood potential will be across
southern portions of the outlook area.

Discussion...Current Doppler radar imagery continues to indicate
widespread moderate to heavy rainfall with some stronger areas of
convection on the poleward side of a slowly advancing cold front,
with an anafrontal rainfall set-up. This is due to surface to 850
mb flow from the southeast being lifted over the frontal boundary,
in an environment of anomalous PWs for October with values in the
1.7 to 2.0 inch per recent SPC mesoanalysis. The mitigating factor
is the gradually waning instability parameters, generally at or
below 500 J/kg of mixed layer CAPE, highest near the Rio Grande.
Although the overall rainfall rates have been modest in most areas
this evening, the extended duration is increasing the ground
saturation and leading to increased run-off and flooding concerns.

The latest CAM guidance suite is indicating the potential for
scattered QPF maxima on the order of 1 to 3 inches through 9Z, and
potentially slightly higher in a few areas where convection is
most persistent. The highest values are likely to occur south of
the Interstate 10 corridor. There should be a gradual abatement
towards 9Z as instability wanes and overall forcing weakens.

Hamrick

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4ueDNgRYm2wQX_U1cQBRQFmxsLNNRxhedOpWe5gZHLvILAwbbpG9mVwCxy-xT26zkVUfu-2HitW7hZ35_7mCmqYamqM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32519815 32329755 31779743 31229777 30259879
29999912 29579962 29160020 28960074 29240113
29620182 29390245 29600278 29960277 30350253
30550227 30750175 31070071 31509993 31959930
32399869
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Oct 16 04:02:12 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 160312
FFGMPD
TXZ000-160900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1501
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1111 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Areas affected...South-Central Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 160310Z - 160900Z

Summary...A swath of heavy rainfall with embedded thunderstorms
may lead to some instances of flooding through the early morning
hours from the central Rio Grande to north-central Texas. The
heaviest rainfall and flash flood potential will be across
southern portions of the outlook area.

Discussion...Current Doppler radar imagery continues to indicate
widespread moderate to heavy rainfall with some stronger areas of
convection on the poleward side of a slowly advancing cold front,
with an anafrontal rainfall set-up. This is due to surface to 850
mb flow from the southeast being lifted over the frontal boundary,
in an environment of anomalous PWs for October with values in the
1.7 to 2.0 inch per recent SPC mesoanalysis. The mitigating factor
is the gradually waning instability parameters, generally at or
below 500 J/kg of mixed layer CAPE, highest near the Rio Grande.
Although the overall rainfall rates have been modest in most areas
this evening, the extended duration is increasing the ground
saturation and leading to increased run-off and flooding concerns.

The latest CAM guidance suite is indicating the potential for
scattered QPF maxima on the order of 1 to 3 inches through 9Z, and
potentially slightly higher in a few areas where convection is
most persistent. The highest values are likely to occur south of
the Interstate 10 corridor. There should be a gradual abatement
towards 9Z as instability wanes and overall forcing weakens.

Hamrick

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7daUfFFU9PTJcKv7pdTJzBI2TS1oR75RCeNQGfSvTS9gQdLhtljdmonmh8TzZ9Vq8v9IXROEZwNkVXlAAeJ9kW4Z80k$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32519815 32329755 31779743 31229777 30259879
29999912 29579962 29160020 28960074 29240113
29620182 29390245 29600278 29960277 30350253
30550227 30750175 31070071 31509993 31959930
32399869
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Oct 17 17:37:58 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 171737
FFGMPD
FLZ000-172335-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1502
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
135 PM EDT Sat Oct 17 2026

Areas affected...South Florida

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 171735Z - 172335Z

SUMMARY...Showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall rates will
develop and expand in coverage over the next several hours. A
threat for some urban flash flooding will exist along the I-95
corridor from West Palm Beach down through Homestead.

DISCUSSION...The early afternoon GOES-E visible satellite imagery
shows an increasingly agitated CU/TCU field across south Florida
as daytime heating and a moisture-rich airmass pooled south of a
cold front contributes to an increasingly unstable boundary layer.

MLCAPE values are on the order of 1500 to 2500 J/kg, and this
coupled with PWs approaching 2.25 inches as noted in the 12Z MFL
RAOB sounding will promote an environment conducive for developing
areas of convection capable of producing high rainfall rates. Very
high WBZ heights (locally over 14,000 ft) and the depiction of a
deeply tropical sounding will support highly efficient processes
to elevate these rates.

The catalyst for convection will come from the low-level forcing
associated with the approach of a cold front from the north, and
also proximity of a pre-frontal surface trough much closer to the
I-95 corridor of southeast FL. Convective initiation is imminent
along this surface trough as seen in visible satellite images and
LightningCast data. Radar already shows some thunderstorms
especially around Fort Lauderdale and near Miami that are
beginning to produce some heavier rainfall rates in just the last
30 minutes.

Expect additional expansion of convection over the next several
hours across south Florida as low-level convergence interacts with
the increasing instability. Some mesoscale outflow boundary
interactions will be possible as well in time.

The latest hires HREF/REFS consensus suggests rainfall rates may
reach as high as 2 to 3 inches/hour with the stronger storms, and
with slow cell-motions, some spotty storm totals by this evening
may reach 3 to 5 inches. Generally, this should support a concern
for some urban flash flooding along the I-95 corridor from West
Palm Beach on down through Homestead.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9T-59H-YfDmfjuKjdErLUJyqzEplIQDLHJ0Nii9Ot24Qhhj3q2g4Qgl4F2dVggAE8S_FMldsEb2KQihGI0ohQ5JDDyw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 27138004 27047983 26537978 25757996 25448018
25378055 25718082 26148078 26658058 27038031
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Oct 18 03:38:02 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 180337
FFGMPD
FLZ000-180700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1503
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1135 PM EDT Sat Oct 17 2026

Areas affected...Southeast Florida

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 180335Z - 180700Z

SUMMARY...Strong thunderstorms with very heavy rainfall rates
developing over the coastal waters will affect coastal portions of
South Florida through the early morning hours. A threat for some
urban flash flooding will exist along the I-95 corridor from West
Palm Beach southward to Homestead through 3 am local time.

DISCUSSION...A complex of nearly stationary thunderstorms has
developed between Fort Lauderdale and West Palm Beach with
convergent low level flow near a cold front. Although most of the
heaviest rainfall has been just 5-10 miles offshore, some of the
heavier rainfall rates have begun to move inland near Deerfield
Beach, with reports of 4 inch per hour rainfall rates from private
observing stations. This will be enough to overwhelm drainage
systems in the area, and could result in localized but impactful
flash flooding through 3 am local time. Increasing coastal
convergence may result in an expansion of this complex of storms
and affect more of the neighboring towns.

The latest CAM guidance is quite varied in placement of the
greatest QPF maxima, with the RRFS likely underdone with amounts,
and the HRRR more reasonable with placement of ongoing convection.
The potential exists for 4-7 inches of rainfall where these storms
persist the longest, especially over northeastern Broward and
southeastern Palm Beach counties, and this could easily result in
some instances of flash flooding.

Hamrick

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9klmHTwybN8vEWIESZ3fX00sC9mjN1zcFJah7hkQf1UXdBu5PuYYFMMYgZ-gNga2ntL-X9bX7Erko9zw0zbgGxBPyFk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 26918015 26838000 26567994 26008004 25638022
25748046 25948044 26318033 26648035 26818027
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Oct 21 07:15:38 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 210715
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-211300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1504
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
314 AM EDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Areas affected...North-Central Arizona

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 210713Z - 211300Z

SUMMARY...Showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase in
coverage and intensity over the next several hours across much of
north-central Arizona. Some of the stronger storms may produce
rainfall rates exceeding an inch per hour that could result in
some instances of flash flooding through 13Z.

DISCUSSION...Regional Doppler radars are indicating an increase in
convection across central Arizona that is moving in a general NNE
direction. The atmosphere is becoming more conducive for
additional storms as PWs rise into the 1 to 1.5 inch range and
mixed layer CAPE climbs into the 500-750 J/kg range based on
recent SPC mesoanalysis. This will allow for increasing coverage
and organization over the next few hours, along with rates
approaching or slightly exceeding an inch per hour.

Recent CAM guidance remains varied on the magnitude of QPF
expected, with the ARW and the NAM conest indicating the potential
for some swaths of 1 to 2 inch amounts, whereas the RRFS and HRRR
are generally lower with expected amounts. If rates become heavy
enough with multiple rounds of storms, some instances of flash
flooding will be possible.

Hamrick

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!503bHph6kWtUBlsuXK_ZrqAJdZY77DCHognivL8A9H2u7Vo7ce9JE7nwmcI5pUZ-Ubm8cXEZQ5KG0Q8tkYBjg-72uow$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...GJT...PSR...SLC...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 37191068 37120967 36460938 35330985 34441037
33891078 33741149 33721208 34121258 34721253
35831226 36951157
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Oct 21 12:58:50 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 211258
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-211830-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1505
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
857 AM EDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Areas affected...West-Central to Northern Arizona...Far Southern
Utah...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 211300Z - 211830Z

SUMMARY...Favorable environment for back-building/repeating
thunderstorms continues through diurnal minimum in instability.
Additional streak or two of 1-1.5" totals crossing areas having
received 1-2" continue to pose possible localized flash flooding
concerns through morning.

DISCUSSION...GOES-W WV suite shows anomalous closed low off the SW
California Coast continues to slowly advance northeastward with
increasing dPVA throughout the southwest while the area of concern
downstream remains along the western edge of a confluent moist
warm conveyor belt emanating from the subtropical Eastern Pacific.
CIRA LPW/LVT suite along with RAP analysis notes that slightly
veered surface to 850mb moist flow comes from the higher moisture
from the shallow/warm Gulf of California northward concurrent with
850-500mb layers coming more northward from a further south source
in the main ocean area south of Baja California. Total PWats up
to 1.5 through the SW Deserts of Arizona spread northward with
1.2-1.3" spreading over the Mogollon Rim into the western San
Francisco Plateau. Moderately unstable mid-levels support 1000
J/kg of MUCAPE along the interface of the sharp western gradient
of the moisture plume (and eastward) from the Colorado River
eastward.

Aloft, the sub-tropical jet axis slowly turns anticyclonically in
proximity to Sun Valley into the southern SF Plateau providing a
broad area of diffluence aloft within stronger overall flow.
Effective bulk shear over 50kts due to speed and low level veering
support organized low level convergence and eventually organized,
rotating updraft potential. As such, the upwind edge across NW
Maricopa into Yavapai county has seen flanking redevelopment
through the morning with KIWA RADAR further hinting upstream
weaker returns indicative of higher elevated TCu/castellaus that
has not tapped lower level moisture convergence/instability but
has the upper-level dynamics to support those updrafts. As such,
expectation is further development through the morning even in the
diurnal minimum of instability.

Given the overall moisture/convergence especially if updrafts are
rotating (like those currently in the vicinity of Flagstaff) may
support 1-1.5"/hr rates. Deep layer stronger flow, cell motions
are quick even with slightly slowing due to rotating updrafts,
local duration will limit overall totals. As such, it is required
for repeating tracks to result in localized 1-1.5" totals to
support potential localized flash flooding concerns. However,
given the placement of the upper-level support and slow change
appear to be probable through the morning. Additionally, expected
tracks may cross those that have received 1"+ localized totals
already this morning further helping the possibility for isolated
to widely scattered possible incident(s) of flash flooding.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_EjmNpzJ43_DAMCA_Pe0H4h9QwENm70owYvpcFMMDf6ymPUY537izR-oJ7ASZbaKkPIVZy4QBzoymSPvekZkL2e9BgQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...GJT...PSR...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 37841088 37650982 36820949 36050983 34801092
33851231 33591341 34151369 35471347 36801290
37651195
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Oct 21 15:17:36 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 211517
FFGMPD
CAZ000-212100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1506
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1116 AM EDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Areas affected...Southwestern California and the Channel
Islands...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 211515Z - 212100Z

SUMMARY...Increasing convective potential with isolated slow
moving cells capable of 1-1.5"/hr. Localized 1-2" totals near
urban or steep terrain may pose localized flash flooding concerns.

DISCUSSION...GOES-W WV suite shows very strong, broad closed low
centered near 35.5N126W with a series of peripheral
shortwave/vorticity centers lifting along the eastern and northern
quadrants with the latest lifting north along 121W north of 30N
but in sufficent wake of the prior to support a broadening of the precipitation/stratus shield within the isentropic ascent portion
of the WCB crossing the warm fornt that remains well southwest of
the Channel Islands. Yet, CIRA LPW/LVT show a slug of enhanced
sub-tropical moisture in the 700-500mb layer coincident with this
diffluent shield supporting 75-100 kg/m/s moisture flux with
trailing similar flux values in the 850-700mb layer approaching
the Channel Island while the surface to 850mb remains in the warm
sector along 120W with values of .75" for that layer with totals
of 1.5". The shield of 1.25" has reached the SW California coast
from SBA to W Ventura. As such, broad shield precipitation has
started to filter into western Transverse Range with .25"-.33"/hr
rates expected to maintain due to orographic ascent.

Otherwise, the instability is the limiting factor at this point,
however, this is expected to increase throughout the day as CAA
aloft will overspread the approaching warm sector though the
California Bight toward the Transverse counties. What is
interesting, is slight temperature gradient noted off the LA/SD
coasts shows about 5 degree temp, difference that modified
soundings from the RAP is supporting a slight 500-750 J/kg of
SBCAPE along the upwind edge of the warm conveyor belt. As a
result a narrow band of convection has developed over E Santa
Barbara county and numerous backyard observations are reaching
.75-1" within the last 30 to 60 minutes. RADAR shows that the
band is weakening with time as it moves ashore, but recent HRRR
solutions suggest a southeastward expansion along the leading low
level confluence/convergence band in the Bight that slowly shifts
eastward toward Ventura county. Localized .5-1" totals in
short-duration may pose a localized flash flooding/rapid
inundation flooding concern for the coastal urban locations but
overall most areas will see this as beneficial or preemptive
toward later activity.

The aforementioned vorticity center is strengthening the triple
point currently near 33N121.5W and will drive further WAA
northward through the channel islands, with the CAA
aloft/steepening lapse rates instability is expected to rise
toward 1000 J/kg (locally 1250 J/kg) and the strengthened low
level response to the mid-level wave should focus further
convergence for convection to develop in proximity to the fronts
as they lift north. This will given an opportunity for slow moving/back-building but narrow convective cores to approach SW CA
coast and western Channel Islands. Rates of 1-1.25"/hr are
possible and localized 2" totals may be possible through 21z,
particularly through the lower slopes of the Transverse range
where orographic ascent will further contribute to prolonged
moderate rainfall.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_hWfiYexXrRMMPtx1ZGhZZxYtmikm1MmVarR8MYOJrnJmdR-SnUDYaxtRfDElF2eX_6wlnNSgJeHedS92tKD4Qiy7UQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOX...SGX...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35652036 34801942 34171757 33161790 32761837
33201956 34252066 34982079 35582103
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Oct 21 18:14:22 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 211814
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-220000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1507
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
212 PM EDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Areas affected...Four Corner Region

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 211815Z - 220000Z

SUMMARY...Strong widely scattered thunderstorms within Warm
Conveyor Belt will continue to be capable of quick .5" with
possible repeating for isolated streaks of 1-1.5" totals.
Isolated flash flooding remains possible through evening.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite shows a dual core sub-tropical jet
structure across the Desert Southwest as stronger 110kt polar jet
presses eastward. This is providing large scale
divergence/diffluence across much of the area of concern, though
greatest magnitude resides over S UT/far N AZ as a bit of
shortwave ridging from SE to NW from NM into S UT, results in
increased right entrance region ascent; with braoder diffluent
split in polar/sub-tropical jet remaining along the UT/NV line.
This broad ascent continues to accelerate low level moisture flux
out of the sub-tropical eastern Pacific with dual fetch noted in
the lower layers of CIRA LPW out of the Gulf of California
aligning with mid-level flow out of the SSW to reach 1.25-1.5"
total PWat values across S AZ into the San Fransisco Plateau, at
or above record moisture values and flux.

While the strength of the mid-level flow is very strong with mean
cell motions at 30-50kts, effective bulk shear around 65kts
continues to support strong rotating updrafts that will help to
slow forward motions for right moving updrafts, to aid some
residency time for the stronger cores. Insolation has also
increased through breaks in the clouds to increase instability
across the area with 1000-1250 J/kg CAPEs starting to be analyzed
with reducing CINH. As such, an increase in convective activity
both in coverage and vigor has been noted in GOES-E Vis and
cooling tops. Stronger rotating updrafts will also support
increased directional and isallobaric influenced flux convergence
to enhance rates to over 1.5"/hr allowing for quick .5" totals
expected with faster cell motions. This alone could be an issue
for flash flooding within the slot canyons and near burn scars.

However, the key to wider/less localized flash flooding will
remain with favored training/repeating tracks and this appears
plasible given the current orientation of convergence/confluence
streaks already noted parallel to the mean flow within the warm conveyor/upper-level cirrus canopy. As such, widely scattered to
scattered incidents of 1-1.5" totals remain possible, perhaps
intersecting areas affected by earlier rounds this morning. As
such, flash flooding remains possible through the remainder of the
afternoon into evening with slow eastward expansion of the
streaks, while the upwind edge of the warm conveyor belt remains
fairly stationary just east of the CA/AZ border and along the
NV/UT line.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4OlwYUudnWP3CwnYz_qaBIjPxUNhvVICnC-TZ5TVQNdguu0vA5fannKXuHjvXpdyvJdH5SJff_qSGmO-7_qJ9XVdjmk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...FGZ...GJT...PSR...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38601031 38280805 37510722 36330732 34940856
33660986 33271140 33311272 33981370 35491432
37141453 38481406 38551264
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Oct 21 21:02:46 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 212102
FFGMPD
CAZ000-220300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1508
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
501 PM EDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Areas affected...Southwestern California

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 212100Z - 220300Z

SUMMARY...Locally heavy rainfall potential will continue across
the Transverse Range and adjacent coastal areas of southwestern
California over the next several hours. Rainfall rates between
0.5-1"/hr are possible, allowing for isolated to widely scattered
flash flood chances into the evening.

DISCUSSION...Current upper level progression over the Pacific has
allowed for prevailing onshore flow with a defined diffluent axis
positioned right into the southern-third of California. PWATs
remain above normal within the coastal plain and adjacent terrain
encompassing the area with the most notable moisture advection
oriented orthogonal to the terrain between Big Sur down to the
northern half of the Transverse Range. Short range guidance
continues to signal the prevailing flow into the terrain with
up-slope enhancement just inland of the immediate coast leading to
pockets of 0.5-1"/hr rainfall rates plausible in the setup.
Currently seeing rates topping out just under the 0.5"/hr
threshold, however, the best ascent is currently located just off
the coast with a stronger mid-level perturbation pivoting just
away from the southern California coastal plain. This trend will
slowly shift eastward as the upper level progression allows for a
better push of the mid-level energy into the area after 00z. This
is consistent within the short range suite and associated
ensembles leading to a more defined heavy rain depiction as we
move into the evening and beyond.

Recent HREF probs for >1" remain modest (40-60%) across areas from
Orange county, northward through Los Angeles, however, a general
max between 60-90% does exist over the northern area of the
Transverse Range centered near and northwest of Santa Barbara.
This is the area most likely to see totals between 1-2", locally
higher over the next 6 hours with areas south the beneficiaries of
the heavier rainfall later in the evening. Considering the signal
in place, flash flooding will remain possible along the coastal
ranges of Southern California with the inland topography and
coastal facing slopes the most notable areas for the risk,
especially within any burn scar remnants within the terrain.

Kleebauer

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8Pa8vGaZ1jzzpTKoXmoUcfEC_cK7j8UI822PQ1Skta-fFMIp1or0uM4NZNaDQtd-89St3VbCzZ6Ett6pl9VgLuTu0dQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HNX...LOX...SGX...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35031895 34931863 34821837 34671818 34541796
34361765 34021739 33671724 33391712 33131702
32921709 32931737 33171772 33391810 33481824
33561851 33681891 33831917 34091979 34242018
34672036 34892001 34941965
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Oct 22 00:01:34 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 220000
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-220558-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1509
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
759 PM EDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Areas affected...Much of Arizona, Southern Utah, and the Four
Corners

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 212358Z - 220558Z

SUMMARY...Heavy rainfall potential will continue across portions
of the Southwest U.S over the next several hours. Rainfall rates
between 0.5-1"/hr, locally higher, are possible, allowing for
scattered flash flood chances into the evening.

DISCUSSION...The general synoptic pattern remains favorable for a
continued threat of heavy rainfall into the Southwest CONUS with
an emphasis on areas of northern AZ, southern UT to the Four
Corners. Prevailing southerly flow on the leading edge of a deep,
closed upper low off the California coast will allow for a broad
axis of elevated moisture advection and sufficient shear to
maintain a steady projection of convective development over the
region. Several waves of thunderstorm activity have allowed for
multiple areas to breach 1" of rainfall over the course of the
period with several locations pushing closer to 2" in assessment
of the latest obs across northern AZ into southern UT. Expectation
is for the threat to continue this evening with a viable consensus
in the CAMs for the threat to last even into the early morning
hours.

Latest HRRR/RRFS outputs signal locally heavy precip potential
over northern and northeast AZ into southern UT, extending into
the Four Corners as flow between 850-700mb backs into the terrain
centered over this region. With sufficient buoyancy on the order
of 500-1000 MLCAPE situated over the area, along with regional
bulk shear between 40-60kts, organized convective clusters and
long lasting mesocyclonic activity will be a feature within this
setup leading to prolonged threats of heavy rain at any given
juncture. HREF probabilities for >1" additional precipitation
overnight remain very elevated at 60-90% for much of northern AZ
into southern UT, overlapping more flash flood prone areas
littered across this particular region. This was more than enough
of a depiction, along with the current thermodynamic and kinematic
posture to outline a continued threat for flash flooding heading
into the evening.

Kleebauer

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9QSXnzVO3fF3z6U7bhvh0kp6dKUsflBum7pBeSWiFetJMla5qHck8jmLCvOLvC77BZMdE_SfiHfZ69HNS3xKafOjTK0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...FGZ...GJT...PSR...SLC...TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38161338 37811138 37800986 37910880 37660827
37110764 36460735 35410757 34250876 32910961
33021168 33851260 34391381 35311442 36471443
37511406
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Oct 22 03:00:54 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 220300
FFGMPD
CAZ000-220854-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1510
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1058 PM EDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Areas affected...Southwest California

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 220254Z - 220854Z

Summary...Slow moving upper low off the California coast will
continue to usher in Pacific moisture with an upslope enhancement
into the coastal terrain of Southern California. Rainfall rates
upwards of 0.5-1"/hr are expected leading to isolated to widely
scattered bouts of flash flooding over the Transverse Range.

Discussion...Recent WV satellite indicates our upper level
disturbance slowly pivoting southeast with a strong low-level
moisture flux beginning to enter into the immediate California
coast to the northwest of Santa Barbara. This is likely the
encroachment of the warm front analyzed off the Southern
California coast which will drive eastward over the course of the
evening leading to a short term enhancement of the precip within
proximity of the front as it migrates along the coast. 925-700mb
flow is currently orthogonal to the coast and coastal terrain just
inland leading a likelihood of effective upslope enhancement along
the southern facing slopes of the Transverse Range situated north
of the coastal regions from just northwest of Santa Barbara,
eventually working into the San Bernardino mountains to the east
of Los Angeles. Current hi-res depictions indicate a period of
heavy rainfall within the terrain influenced regions with QPF
distributions between 1-2" additional rainfall anticipated for
these areas just inland.

Remnant burn scars and complex terrain drainage will likely be the
more focused areas for flash flooding potential this evening into
the overnight period. The forward propagation speed of the front
will be the driving force behind how prevalent the flash flooding
threat will be within the coastal terrain which models are leaning
towards a short term burst, rather than persistent banding that
typically coincides with more appreciable impacts. In this case,
the forecast is for possible flash flooding with an emphasis on
those more sensitive areas in the terrain.

Kleebauer

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4KwgUSi50Ca1-BrcgNEQytN5k2NAMMtlk_xsAUlNtwGYehl9hOuJgSy9rgOzm-o5iMgk8Kbf0M1-KHLMQMrc1-DFl9g$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HNX...LOX...SGX...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35112062 35102013 35001993 34841946 34911889
34891847 34881821 34781775 34641746 34191713
33781718 33311696 33061700 32771689 32461718
33001773 33211826 33491893 33791972 33972011
34292088 34862088
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Oct 22 09:29:00 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 220928
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-221527-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1511
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
527 AM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Areas affected...AZ into southern UT

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 220927Z - 221527Z

Summary...Convection streaming northward across central/northern
Arizona into southern Utah will pose an isolated to scattered
flash flood threat through 15Z. While quick cell motions have
generally kept hourly totals under 0.5 inches, high short duration
rates over increasingly saturated ground will drive runoff
concerns, with the potential for linear training bands to produce
locally significant impacts in sensitive terrain.

Discussion...A broad plume of deep tropical moisture is streaming
northward across the Southwest ahead of a mid/upper level low
tracking into California. This moisture advection has pushed PW
values to near or at record levels for mid to late October across
a wide corridor. Despite being near the typical diurnal minimum in
instability, thermodynamic profiles remain unusually buoyant, with
CAPE exceeding 1000 J/kg across portions of Arizona and hovering
near 500 J/kg into southern Utah.

Convective activity across Arizona is expected to persist and
gradually increase in coverage and intensity through the early
morning hours. This will be driven by strengthening large scale
forcing for ascent from the west as the upper low approaches,
combined with the eastward progression of the low level moisture
transport axis into central Arizona. Convective elements
developing within this corridor will continue to stream rapidly
north northeastward into southern Utah.

To this point, fast storm motions to the north-northeast have
largely kept hourly rainfall totals in check, generally below 0.5
inches. However, short duration rainfall rates remain quite high
within the convective cores. Furthermore, antecedent rainfall over
the past 24 hours has left conditions increasingly saturated and
hydrologically sensitive across the region. Consequently, even
quick moving cells will be capable of generating localized flash
flood concerns. As convective coverage expands and instability
gradually ticks upward this morning, cumulative rainfall totals
will steadily mount over Arizona and southern Utah.

The deep unidirectional southerly flow supports localized training
and backbuilding, particularly across central Arizona at the nose
of the low level moisture transport axis and along the sharpest
instability gradient. Several recent HRRR/RRFS runs have indicated
this potential, highlighting a corridor between Phoenix and
Flagstaff favored for training convection capable of producing
rates exceeding 1"/hr. Even in southern UT where hourly rates
remain under 1 inch, recent HRRR runs depict some FFG exceedance
developing by 10-12Z, with spatial coverage expanding through mid
morning. While the FFG exceedance footprint is somewhat delayed
across Arizona, HRRR TLE exceedance probabilities climb by 12Z as
linear training bands may begin to organize.

Overall, at least isolated to scattered flash flooding is
considered likely through 15Z. Given the broader synoptic
evolution and diurnal heating, this threat will likely continue
beyond 15Z and may ultimately peak later in the day. Locally
significant flash flood impacts are possible, especially across
complex terrain, slot canyons, and sensitive drainage basins.

Chenard

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5Wr_9h1eFs2lW_4OGLjAIg1e7Bv2fiu6iVshmclhTAWCbuNNIGiM3eGNdiob1L9BLn-ipgAal_GKnWGjHL9_g-vHxyg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...GJT...PSR...SLC...TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38521171 38421056 38230994 37780936 37010927
35410937 34360935 33410948 33321014 33401072
33431181 33701262 34851307 35801325 37771314
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Oct 22 13:17:34 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 221317
FFGMPD
CAZ000-221900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1512
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
916 AM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Areas affected...Coastal Southern California...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 221315Z - 221900Z

SUMMARY...Shallow, narrow updrafts capable of efficient rainfall
production and rates up to 1"/hr may pose scattered focused flash
flooding concerns due to recent soil saturation and within urban
centers.

DISCUSSION...GOES-W WV suite denotes core of the seasonally
anomalous deep upper-low just west-southwest of Cape Conception
but appears to be transferring energy/center toward dominant
shortwave rounding the southern base of the low into the
California Bight. This is helping to steepen the older surface to
mid-level occlusion along the northwest edge of the deep cyclone
as it starts to slide southeastward, providing some increased
convergence along it, though also helping to tighten the gradient
to enhance southerly onshore flow along Santa Barbara, Ventura
counties.

Steeper lapse rates aloft/CAA and modestly warm lower layers
support increased SBCAPEs toward 1000 J/kg through the
southeast/WAA quadrant of the the larger system. Onshore increase
of winds to 10-15kts noted in VWP gain the frictional convergence
of the coast and further orographic ascent from the southern
slopes of the Transverse Ranges resulting in scattered convergence
sufficient for convective development. Regional RADAR and 3.9um
SWIR loop from GOES-W denote this well, with narrow updraft,
shallow CB development in the last few hours along the coast.
CIRA LPW shows modest remaining .3 and .5" LPW values for the
lowest layers (sfc-850, 850-700mb) for modest rainfall efficiency
perhaps supporting rates up to 1", though the broadness of the
updraft will be the greater determining factor for greatest rate
potential.

Residency time will be the driver for the greatest totals, . Given
the slow transfer of energy/center of the deep cyclone; eastward
propagation will be very slow and given consistent convergence
location on the cells upwind flank, back-building/regeneration of
updrafts will likely result in those 30-60 minute time frames and
result in the totals of 1-1.5" range though widely
scattered/focused locally due to the spacing/size of those updraft
cores. There is some potential given the orientation of the coast
line that a slow drift from the east will move through areas
affected by prior smaller cores especially across Ventura into Los
Angeles county with time.

Isolated flash flooding may be possible given recent moderate to
heavy rainfall yesterday (1-2+" totals) and urban areas generally
limiting infiltration of these higher rates. MRMS Flash unit
stream flows are already locally over 200-300 cfs/smi, providing
further confidence that higher values will be reached over the
next few hours locally.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5DNhS3fT62Jp5kvPHh5nJ2QjJgLVX2R_4Y-HTqnWB7tu9oJZG4GEknh-isqRTfGyU9HVv40Cjb-xARvd6agec9iQF0g$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOX...SGX...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35592055 35372012 34861961 34661925 34501835
34341721 33811685 33271698 33481791 33271839
33601901 33751965 33892029 34432078 34982106
35552115
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Oct 22 15:20:32 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 221520
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-222100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1513
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1118 AM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Areas affected...S Utah...SW Colorado...NW New Mexico...Much of N
& E Arizona...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 221520Z - 222100Z

SUMMARY...Wide-spread incidents of localized flash flooding remain
likely as increasing moisture/heating will support additional
convective development in bands capable of sub hourly .5-1" totals
and with repeating resulting in spots up to 2".

DISCUSSION...GOES-W WV suite shows inner core of the 3.5 standard
anomaly low is starting a solid eastward shift over the last few
hours resulting in eastward height-falls in the Lower Colorado
River Valley and eastward shift of the strong 100kt 3H jet core
out of S NV/SE CA and combined with the final exit of the
sub-tropical jet core across N UT/NW CO continues to support a
broad area of diffluence/divergence across the Four Corners area,
though helping to spur eastward advancement of the tight 850-700mb
moisture core into west-central AZ toward the AZ/NM line by 00z
tonight; with veering flow further enhancing directional
convergence in the low levels over the next few hours. CIRA LVT
continue to show due confluence in the 850-700mb layer over S AZ
while peaking across the 700-500mb layer through central AZ into S
UT with values still remaining over 125-150 kg/m/s) aiding to
efficient rainfall production when there are convective elements.
However, this flux into steeper terrain (especially the San Juan
Mtns in SW CO) will provide prolonged moderate rainfall due to
orographic ascent (Atmospheric River style rainfall/flooding
concerns).

However, increasing solar heating through broken layers
(especially west of the current convective core/shield in NE AZ/NW
NM) will increase instability from 500 J/kg (S UT/N AZ) and
isolated 1500 J/kg (south-central AZ), reaching 1000 to over 2000
J/kg by 18-20z. This will allow for scattered thunderstorm
development along the north-south confluence/convergence bands
noted well in the GOES WV and IR/Visible animation. Currently,
isolated cooling tops can be seen within the diffluence arc from
SW UT across N central AZ toward central AZ Valley...eventually
will reach similar mature appearance as active convection along
the leading edge of the deep moisture/instability currently from N
Graham, AZ county to SW McKinley county. Bulk shear remains well
above normal with broad 40+ kts across the entire area, suggesting
better organized rotating updrafts are probable further increasing
localized moisture flux and rainfall production efficiency.
Localized rates in excess of 1.5"/hr are possible but like prior
days, cell motions will be quicker and residency will be limited
to a sub-hourly periods but a quick .5-1" still could pose
localized flash flooding concerns given recent tracks of heavy
rainfall (broad 1-2+") totals over the prior days.

While eastward propagation of the south to north bands of
thunderstorms will be quicker than prior days; some repeating is
possible and spots up to 2" by 00z may be expected. These widely
scattered incidents obviously will pose the greatest potential for
flash flooding conditions. The overall coverage of thunderstorms
will be great enough to have above average confidence in likely
incidents of flash flooding through this afternoon, though
incidents are equally likely to widely spread throughout the area
of concern and locally focused in nature. Impacts in slot canyons,
burn scars and urban settings would be greatest.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!46KexDNITs3NkvpIYrsKMEP_PFFqpJmH5PN5rhIhjpCZ0SeeamqeVxI9NN-BSoZ84k2XUUB6a3hCZObJKIzAK_5_Cqk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...FGZ...GJT...PSR...SLC...TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39301166 39010946 37550726 35670753 33770875
32351006 33141131 33591250 35471271 36971365
37991387 38971331
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Oct 22 19:56:26 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 221956
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-230200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1514
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
354 PM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Areas affected...Eastern Arizona..Northwest New Mexico...Southern Colorado...Far Southeast Utah...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 222000Z - 230200Z

SUMMARY...Favorable southwesterly flow regime with sub-tropical
moisture supporting the development of multiple south to north
convective lines this evening. Slow eastward propagation and
potential overlap/repeating near the AZ/NM line may support spots
of 2"+ totals though each cell may be capable of quick .5-1"
sub-hourly total resulting in broad area of potential localized
flash flooding incidents.

DISCUSSION...Regional RADAR and GOES-E Visible imagery shows an
increasingly solid multi-celluar convective complex with some
developing bowing segments from NE Rio Arriba to E McKiney to the
NE Catron/Central Cibola county line with a few developing TCu
through the Mogollon Mountains in western NM. Stronger
southeasterly flow along the flanking portion of the line at
10-15ks is advecting moderate mid-50s Tds and steadily increasing
unstable air as temperature start to rise to the low 80s
supporting increasing SBCAPEs in the 2000+ J/kg range along the
flanking line slowly reducing toward 500-1000 J/kg along the
central CO/NM line. This will support moisture flux convergence
with forward propagation may limit residency to support sub-hourly
.5-1" totals. This may result in localized flash flooding for the
most prone locations, but at best will saturate the upper soil
profile for later convective activity.

Upstream in the wake of the prior line, sub-tropical moisture axis
has shifted eastward into the eastern third of AZ with a solid
wind shift noted from surface across the Sun Valley toward Tuscon
Metro area further increasing moisture flux convergence with the
secondary band. Instability axis is also starting to align with
the q-axis with MLCAPEs reaching 2000 J/kg in SE AZ slowly
reducing to 1000 J/kg further north into the San Francisco and
Colorado Plateaus of E AZ. Total Pwats of 1.0 to 1.4" (in lower
terrain) remain in the 99th percentile and about 4 standard
anomalies from normal. Combined with the very strong divergence
aloft on the eastern side of the 90-100kt 3H jet allows for strong
convective response over the next few hours. This has begun
across north-central AZ toward the Mogollon Rim with a slowly
filling convective line; while convective initiation is starting
to occur across E Gila/Pinal counties starting to reach NW Graham
county.

Given thermodynamic and even dynamic parameters in place, this
should support strong instantaneous rates in excess of 2"/hr.
However, like most convection this week, cell motions will likely
be greater than 30-40kts, limiting residency and resulting in
sub-hourly totals of 0.5-1". Cell motions from south to north
generally parallel to the convective line may still may allow for
some short-term repeating/training given cell motion is more
though eastward propagation due to approaching height-falls,
should limit this to an hour or so. As such, a spot or two of 2"
remains plausible. Additionally, this second line may eventually
overlap with areas already having 1" from the prior line this
afternoon as the second line approaches the AZ/NM line. As such,
incidents of flash flooding are likely, though will be more widely
scattered within the overall MPD area of concern.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4Rg2ls-aMfqiGGSxJDB43W3Lyo7EgMyWHcsiQJ8vlAOFRC_Ubg_Qe8uW4ltzB1TXZ9Cp5svmfjG4gg1AOduLzg4wQXM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...GJT...PSR...PUB...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38390694 37560585 37020465 35590562 34690668
33870740 32100911 32161050 33761068 34981165
36501057 37990882
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Oct 22 21:19:52 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 222119
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-230317-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1515
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
517 PM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Areas affected...Eastern Nevada, Northwest Arizona, and Southwest
Utah

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 222117Z - 230317Z

Summary...Continued threat of heavy rainfall across northwest
Azizona into southwest Utah and southeastern Nevada as scattered
thunderstorms move over the area from the south. Rainfall rates
between 0.5-1"/hr are plausible leading to potential isolated to
widely scattered instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...The threat across the canyon areas of UT and AZ will
continue for at least another 4-6 hours before we finally start
scaling back on the potential with the upper level evolution to
the west finally pushing the deep moisture advection regime
further downstream. The current radar/sat composite indicate
another round of convective development within the terrain focused
across northwest AZ, sliding north into southwestern UT within the
mean southerly flow situated on the eastern periphery of the upper
level circulation. Mid-level heights continue to prog a broad
diffluent axis right over the northern half of AZ into the Four
Corners with the western periphery of the deep layer moisture and
jet dynamics still situated over the sensitive canyon regions in
each state. This area has already seen a plethora of rainfall and
subsequent flash flood warnings the past 24-36 hours, so antcedent
conditions remain favorable for flood prospects through the early
evening time frame.

Latest HRRR/RRFS combo indicate this being the last prominent
convective burst in the setup with ongoing rainfall producing
rates upwards of 0.5-0.75"/hr in the strongest cells as given by
radar estimates. This correlates to the potential for at least
isolated to widely scattered flash flood prospects, especially in
those slot canyon areas focused around Zion and Bryce Canyon
National Parks. Expectation is for additional rainfall of up to
1", locally higher with the final convective burst leading to
multi-day totals eclipsing 2" for many across the canyon areas
in-of NV/AZ.

Kleebauer

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4sGVzlQ2YS3aPAoqYoOuhOu9uOH-ZRH_nX0SKTrfawA-Ja6WiyvZHYjKdvH1CSqUaTDHY8eoEj0BgXSJ6aBIx9QDxsk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...LKN...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39331321 39191249 38581171 37651165 36951201
36341242 35841278 35661337 35941455 36541499
37341534 38271546 38831508 39251417
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Oct 23 01:24:30 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 230124
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-230715-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1516
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
922 PM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Areas affected...Eastern AZ...Southern CO...Western and Central NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 230122Z - 230715Z

SUMMARY...Bands of locally well-organized showers and
thunderstorms will continue into the overnight hours across
portions of eastern AZ, southern CO and through western and
central NM. Additional areas of flash flooding are likely, and
locally significant impacts will be possible.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-W IR satellite imagery shows a
vigorous deep layer trough and associated closed low continuing to
pivot gradually across the Southwest U.S. This energy continues to
support bands of heavy showers and thunderstorms across areas of
eastern AZ, southern CO and the western third of NM as deep layer ascent/forcing associated with DPVA interacts with a corridor of
strong low to mid-level moisture convergence/transport and a nose
of modest instability.

Strong deep layer southerly flow is fostering 850/700 mb moisture
flux anomalies out ahead of a frontal zone of 3 to 5 standard
deviations above normal. MUCAPE values are on the order of 500 to
1000 J/kg, and with the enhanced forcing aloft, there will likely
continue to be bands of rather well-organized convection and
especially with as much as 30 to 50 kts of effective bulk shear
fostering organized convective structures.

Some of the coldest cloud tops are over northwest NM right now
with radar confirming multiple organized bands of convection with
some occasional cell-training concerns. Rainfall rates with the
activity are locally as high as 1 to 2 inches/hour, and with the
cell-training concerns and potential for orographic enhancement
over areas of higher terrain, some additional rainfall amounts
over the next several hours may reach as high as 2 to 3+ inches.

This is consistent with the multi-model hires consensus, and these
rains are likely to foster additional areas of flash flooding.
Some locally significant impacts will be possible, and especially
near any burn scar locations, and within any slot/box canyons and
near the normally dry washes.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!51eHQCy8asPU8AndtcVRtBc6y4HkRmfgcTqjRQdQsqHKUl7K02hFXzkOFOEjfc2KsRoX_PkKoBN87fRjUoM7LqkyoyI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...GJT...PSR...PUB...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38100678 38040551 37220489 35760542 34440622
33300674 32490722 32030794 31780871 31870939
32271009 33001029 34991002 36420928 37420835
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Oct 23 01:54:28 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 230154
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-230745-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1517
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
953 PM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Areas affected...Northern AZ...Central and Southern UT...Southwest
CO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 230153Z - 230745Z

SUMMARY...Scattered showers and thunderstorms may foster some
additional flash flooding concerns tonight.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-W WV suite shows a strong upper
trough/closed low over the Southwest U.S. gradually advancing
eastward. Satellite imagery shows the energy taking on a negative
tilt, and this enhanced forcing/divergence aloft associated with
the height falls along with steepening mid-level lapse rates will
continue to favor additional areas of scattered showers and
thunderstorms going through the overnight hours.

MUCAPE values are locally still over 500 J/kg, and there are still
some areas of favorable low to mid-level moisture convergence
which coupled with orographic ascent over the higher terrain
should support the convective threat lingering along with locally
heavy rainfall rates.

The latest radar shows some of the stronger and more organized
cells over areas of far northern AZ and into southern UT. Drier
mid-level air arriving across the region will tend to mitigate the
rainfall rates a bit, but some rainfall rates with the stronger
storms may still reach as high as 1 to 1.5 inches/hour.

Localized cell-training will remain possible, and this may yield
some additional storm totals of up to 2 inches. This may result in
areas of additional flash flooding, with the slot-canyon regions
and burn scar locations most susceptible to seeing these potential
flash flooding impacts. Some of the normally dry washes may also
see potential for runoff concerns.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6xVTbyXMnHczjWBYhFZ9j1XpBN0HcTB3RXJB5SlZ6UthoRs9ZzSr45WlNiLD2aP_XsgP_iC1j2XumALyXklYZ-L_yKk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...FGZ...GJT...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40051093 39840951 39020827 37970784 37220854
36140944 34531021 34281115 34921215 36621266
37941269 39301222
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

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