ACUS11 KWNS 250131
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250131
NDZ000-SDZ000-250230-

Mesoscale Discussion 2122
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0831 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Areas affected...Parts of eastern North Dakota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 625...

Valid 250131Z - 250230Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 625
continues.

SUMMARY...The risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts continues
spreading eastward across parts of eastern North Dakota -- within
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 625.

DISCUSSION...Following several storm splits and associated mergers,
a small upscale-growing cluster has evolved along the surface front
in south-central/southeast ND. Over the next couple hours, this
cluster will continue southeastward and pose the greatest risk of
damaging wind gusts -- given the well-established cold pool and
strong surface-based buoyancy downstream. Additionally, left-movers
evolving northeastward in north-central SD could interact with this
cluster and result in additional upscale growth. However, the 00Z
ABR sounding sampled robust low-level inhibition at the base of the
EML, which may limit the severe risk with southeastward extent into
parts of northeastern SD.

Farther north, a separate convective cluster/left-mover is tracking northeastward across parts of northeastern ND. Around 45 kt of 0-6
km shear (per MVX VWP data) oriented perpendicular to the surface
front and moderate surface-based buoyancy should help maintain this
cluster for the next hour or two. Large hail and damaging winds will
be the main concern with this activity.

..Weinman.. 08/25/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5VOiP2lHay_LnEO1pEi4hN1OvRwIZTmq7XYc-trYn5dfLS61yYiEGojjSXWKCLyxpgjHLbTRr0oP9-C9zmalMlw0F40$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON 46279996 46999824 47249818 47759848 48159853 48399831
48499796 48459753 48139718 47719710 47059714 46499757
46049822 45949881 45929950 46069982 46279996

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


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